EPA per carry: running backs ranked

Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. A 4-yard run on 3rd-and-8 loses points even though it gains yards.

Why the box score misses it: Yards per carry credits a 5-yard run on 3rd-and-15 and ignores the goal-line carry that scores.

Best so far: Kenneth Walker III (KC), +0.12. A typical running back is −0.10. Players need at least 20 carries to qualify, so nobody is ranked on a handful of plays.

Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days

54 of 54 running backs

EPA/carry leaders among running backs
Player
1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCElite
+0.1286−16.4grade points downLeaning that way
2
James CookRB · BUFElite
+0.1268−5.5grade points downWithin the noise
3
Jaylen WarrenRB · PITElite
+0.1168+5.2grade points upLeaning that way
4
Brian RobinsonRB · ATLElite
+0.0951−4.8grade points downWithin the noise
5
Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIAElite
+0.0947+30.0grade points upA clear change
6
Kyle MonangaiRB · CHIElite
+0.0857−3.1grade points downWithin the noise
7
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLWell above typical
+0.0799even
8
Christian McCaffreyRB · SFWell above typical
+0.0561−2.3grade points down
9
Bucky IrvingRB · TBWell above typical
+0.0575+4.0grade points upWithin the noise
10
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETWell above typical
+0.03102+5.6grade points upLeaning that way
11
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAXWell above typical
+0.0327–
12
Chuba HubbardRB · CARWell above typical
+0.0362−5.8grade points downWithin the noise
13
Jonathan TaylorRB · INDWell above typical
+0.03100−2.1grade points down
14
Kyren WilliamsRB · LARWell above typical
+0.0353+11.9grade points upLeaning that way
15
Saquon BarkleyRB · PHIAbove typical
+0.0235–
16
Travis EtienneRB · NOAbove typical
−0.0031–
17
Blake CorumRB · LARAbove typical
−0.0133−22.3grade points downLeaning that way
18
Samaje PerineRB · CINAbove typical
−0.0326+12.6grade points upWithin the noise
19
Derrick HenryRB · BALAbove typical
−0.03113−3.2grade points downWithin the noise
20
Braelon AllenRB · NYJAbove typical
−0.0356+14.5grade points upLeaning that way
21
Javonte WilliamsRB · DALAbove typical
−0.0372+2.5grade points up
22
D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIAbove typical
−0.0476−6.2grade points downWithin the noise
23
Bhayshul TutenRB · JAXTypical
−0.0679−13.0grade points downLeaning that way
24
Mike Washington Jr.RB · LVTypical
−0.0725−23.7grade points downLeaning that way
25
Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARITypical
−0.0867−7.4grade points downWithin the noise
26
Alvin KamaraRB · NOTypical
−0.0928+26.8grade points upLeaning that way
27
Tony PollardRB · TENTypical
−0.0966−3.2grade points downWithin the noise
28
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WASTypical
−0.1067+7.1grade points upWithin the noise
29
Kaelon BlackRB · SFTypical
−0.1037even
30
Rhamondre StevensonRB · NETypical
−0.1156+12.8grade points upLeaning that way
31
Aaron JonesRB · MINTypical
−0.1396−1.7grade points down
32
TreVeyon HendersonRB · NETypical
−0.1342+6.4grade points upWithin the noise
33
Woody MarksRB · HOUBelow typical
−0.1340+12.3grade points upWithin the noise
34
De'Von AchaneRB · MIABelow typical
−0.1533–
35
Rachaad WhiteRB · WASBelow typical
−0.1528–
36
Chase BrownRB · CINBelow typical
−0.1670−8.9grade points downLeaning that way
37
Tank BigsbyRB · PHIBelow typical
−0.1728even
38
Breece HallRB · NYJBelow typical
−0.1751–
39
Keaton MitchellRB · LACBelow typical
−0.1732−2.7grade points down
40
Cam SkatteboRB · NYGBelow typical
−0.1781+2.0grade points up
How to read this table
  • The number on the left is the league rank among running backs, even when the list is filtered to one team.
  • “Against the league” draws each player on the same strip: the ends are the 10th-best and 90th-best player, the shaded stretch is the middle half, and the tick is the median. Right is always better.
  • “Lately” is the change in grade between a player's last 2 games and the games before them. The tag says whether the change is bigger than what a few plays could cause.
  • Tick “Show the box score” to put the traditional totals next to the advanced number and sort by either.

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Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.