Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days
The read
Alvin grades below average among running backs so far, with no number far from the middle.
Lately he is playing better. EPA per carry is +0.26 over the last 2 games (10 carries), against −0.28 before that. A few plays could easily explain this. Worth watching, not worth believing yet.
Back in the lineup: He missed 1 game earlier, then played all of the last 1 game, on the field for about 4 of every 10 plays when he plays.
Written from his numbers, not from film. 4 games are behind the season figures.
How he stacks up
Every graded stat at a glance, against all the running backs in the league.
Stuffed runs7714%13th of 54small sample
Broken tackles648.0 per 10019th of 51small sample
EPA per carry53−0.0926th of 54small sample
Yards after contact201.4 yds41st of 51small sample
Success rate1932%44th of 54small sample
Explosive runs153.6%46th of 54small sample
Left is the worst at his job, right is the best, and the line down the middle is average. The bubble is his percentile: 90 means better than nine in ten qualifying running backs. Faded bars are still small samples.
How he has progressed
Where he has ranked among running backs after each week, and every game behind it.
Season rank climbed: 21st to 53rd percentile since Wk 3.
The line is his season-to-date rank among players at his position after each week, from 100 (the best) to 0 (the worst). It rises when he passes other players, not when he has one big game. Early weeks are noisier because fewer plays are behind them. The shaded weeks are the recent stretch.
EPA per carry game by game
Week
Opponent
That game
carries
Season rank after
2
vs BAL
−0.42
9
–
3
vs LV
−0.14
9
21st pct
4
vs ATL
+0.44
7
55th pct
5
vs MIN
−0.17
3
53rd pct
One game is a small sample: a single stat over 7 carries can swing on a handful of plays. Shaded rows are the recent stretch.
The numbers, in context
Each one against every running back with at least 20 carries. Right on the strip is better.
EPA per carry
●Typical
−0.09
26th of 54 running backs · top 49%
−0.30worse to better+0.08
Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. A 4-yard run on 3rd-and-8 loses points even though it gains yards.
The box score: Yards per carry credits a 5-yard run on 3rd-and-15 and ignores the goal-line carry that scores.
Does it show up in winning? Across 153 games league-wide, teams won 60% of the time when their running back was in the best third on EPA per carry, and 46% when he was in the worst third.
Success rate
▼Well below typical
32%
44th of 54 running backs · bottom 21%
29%worse to better47%
How often a carry gains enough to keep the offense on schedule.
The box score: Rushing yards pile up on carries that did not help.
Does it show up in winning? Across 153 games league-wide, teams won 67% of the time when their running back was in the best third on success rate, and 49% when he was in the worst third.
Explosive runs
▼Well below typical
3.6%
46th of 54 running backs · bottom 17%
3.6%worse to better16.0%
The share of his carries that go 10 yards or more.
The box score: A long run is in the yardage total but its frequency is not.
Does it show up in winning? Across 153 games league-wide, teams won 74% of the time when their running back was in the best third on explosive runs, and 45% when he was in the worst third.
Yards after contact
▼Well below typical
1.4 yds
41st of 51 running backs · bottom 22%
1.4 ydsworse to better2.6 yds
Yards he gains per carry after the first defender touches him. The blockers have done their job by then; this part is the back.
The box score: Rushing yards credit the line and the back alike.
Does it show up in winning? Across 128 games league-wide, teams won 71% of the time when their running back was in the best third on yards after contact, and 50% when he was in the worst third.
Broken tackles
▲Above typical
8.0 per 100
19th of 51 running backs · top 38%
0.0 per 100worse to better13.8 per 100
Tackles he breaks per 100 carries, as charted by Pro Football Reference.
The box score: A broken tackle is not recorded anywhere in the box score.
Does it show up in winning? Across 128 games league-wide, a good or bad game on broken tackles from a running back has not lined up much with his team winning (62% wins in the best third, 55% in the worst).
Stuffed runs
▲Well above typical
14%lower is better
13th of 54 running backs · top 25%
24%worse to better11%
The share of his carries that gain nothing or lose yards. Fewer is better, and the line shares the blame.
The box score: Hidden inside the yards per carry.
Does it show up in winning? Across 153 games league-wide, a good or bad game on stuffed runs from a running back has not lined up much with his team winning (60% wins in the best third, 53% in the worst).
How he plays
Tendencies: how his game differs from the running backs around him. These are not better or worse, only different, and often say as much about the offense or defense he plays in as about him.
Yards before contact
Style
1.6 yds
Gets little room, and more so than almost any of the running backs. A typical one is 2.3 yds.
1.6 ydslow to high3.0 yds
Yards per carry before a defender touches him. That is mostly the line and the scheme, so it is shown, not graded.
Carries from shotgun
Style
39%
Right around the middle of running backs: a typical one is 34%.
16%low to high49%
The share of his carries that start with the quarterback in shotgun, a sign of what kind of run game he lives in.
Playing time
He has played in 3 of his team's 4 games with snap counts, on the field for about 33% of the team's offensive plays when he plays.
Back in the lineup. He missed 1 game earlier, then played all of the last 1 game, on the field for about 4 of every 10 plays when he plays.
out
DET
29%
BAL
32%
LV
38%
ATL
?
MIN
Each column is a game: the share of his team's offensive snaps he played. 80% means about 8 of every 10 plays. “Out” means he did not play; a question mark means snap counts are not posted yet. Shaded games are the recent stretch.
Game by game
Every game this season: how it ended for his team, how much he played, his box score, and the advanced numbers from that one game. One game is a small sample, so read the right-hand columns as a snapshot, not his level.
Alvin Kamara game by game
Game
Result
Snaps
Car
Yds
TD
EPA/carry
Success
10+ yd runs
YAC/carry
Wk 2vs BAL
W 24–17
29%
9
15
0
−0.42
11%
0.0%
1.3 yds
Wk 3vs LV
L 27–35
32%
9
36
0
−0.14
44%
11.1%
1.3 yds
Wk 4vs ATL
L 24–45
38%
7
23
2
+0.44
43%
0.0%
1.6 yds
Wk 5vs MIN
L 13–23
–
3
12
0
−0.17
33%
0.0%
–
The box score
The traditional totals, with where each ranks among running backs. A total rewards volume, which is why the advanced numbers above matter.
Ranks are among players at the same job who have enough plays to be graded. Grades and rankings come from play-by-play, charting and snap-count data, so they cannot see blocking, route running or assignments. See how the grades work.
Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.
