The Lab · 2026 season
Season twins
Which team since 1999 looked the most like the Raiders after 4 games? Right now it is the 2022 Jaguars. Lay any of the closest teams over the Raiders, stat by stat, and see how their seasons ended.
The 2026 Raiders and the 2022 Jaguars
One spoke for each stat after 4 games. The further out, the better that team ranked among all team-seasons since 1999. The dashed ring is the league average.
Closest team-seasons
Pick one to lay it over the Raiders.
The 2022 Jaguars started 2-2, then finished 9-8 and made the playoffs. The two teams looked most alike on giveaways and takeaways, and least alike on pass rush.
Stat by stat
Where each team ranked among all team-seasons after 4 games: the circle is the 2026 Raiders, the diamond is the 2022 Jaguars. The last column is what the 2022 Jaguars did over the rest of their season.
- Passing gameRaiders+0.1579th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 4+0.182022 Jaguars, rest+0.09
- Running gameRaiders−0.2015th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 4−0.122022 Jaguars, rest−0.04
- Third-down offenseRaiders40%58th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 439%2022 Jaguars, rest43%
- Red-zone offenseRaiders60%58th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 458%2022 Jaguars, rest57%
- Ball securityRaiders1.5046th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 41.502022 Jaguars, rest1.23
- Pass protectionRaiders3.3%87th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 44.2%2022 Jaguars, rest4.4%
- Pass defenseRaiders−0.1584th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 4−0.212022 Jaguars, rest+0.08
- Run defenseRaiders−0.1056th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 4−0.032022 Jaguars, rest−0.06
- Third-down defenseRaiders39%46th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 438%2022 Jaguars, rest45%
- Red-zone defenseRaiders73%12th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 460%2022 Jaguars, rest62%
- TakeawaysRaiders2.2585th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 42.252022 Jaguars, rest1.31
- Pass rushRaiders8.2%81st percentile2022 Jaguars, first 45.7%2022 Jaguars, rest5.1%
- Offense overallRaiders+0.0056th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 4+0.062022 Jaguars, rest+0.03
- Big playsRaiders8.1%31st percentile2022 Jaguars, first 47.3%2022 Jaguars, rest11.0%
- ScoringRaiders28.887th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 426.32022 Jaguars, rest23.0
- Defense overallRaiders−0.1383rd percentile2022 Jaguars, first 4−0.142022 Jaguars, rest+0.02
- Big plays allowedRaiders9.1%55th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 410.5%2022 Jaguars, rest9.6%
- Points allowedRaiders21.057th percentile2022 Jaguars, first 416.82022 Jaguars, rest21.8
What happened next
52% wins after game 4, and 40% made the playoffs
After game 4 the 30 closest team-seasons won 52% of their games, against 50% for the average team. 40% of them made the playoffs, against 39% of all teams.
We tested this on all 855 team-seasons since 1999: guessing a team's win rate over the rest of its season from its 30 closest twins missed by 18.9 percentage points, against 20.7 for guessing the league average and 27.8 for repeating its own start. That is a real but modest edge. A twin is a way to see what a team resembles, not a prediction of what it will do.
How the matching works: every team-season from 1999 to 2025 is scored on the same 18 stats, each one scaled by how much teams usually differ on it. A twin is a team-season whose scaled numbers are close to the Raiders’ across the board. Offense-only and defense-only matches use just those stats. The five closest are shown one by one; the 30 closest are added up for the numbers above.