NFL Playoff Machine 2026

What the NFL Playoff Machine does

It turns the rest of the 2026 schedule into a set of picks you control. Every game that has been played is locked to its real score. Every game that has not is yours to call: tap a team to pick it, tap it again to take the pick back, or call a tie. After every tap the whole league is worked out again, so you can see the records, the division races, the seven playoff teams in each conference and the first-round games they would play.

How your predictions work

The table always shows the real results so far plus the picks you have made. A game you have not picked counts for nothing yet, so the table fills in as you go. Quick fill can pick the home team in every open game or flip a coin for each one, and it keeps the picks you made unless you tell it not to. Your picks are saved on this device, so you can leave and come back, and nothing about them is sent to us. “Share” makes a picture of your scenario, wide for link previews or tall for posting, and a short link to exactly your picks; anyone who opens it sees your scenario first, and your own saved picks are still there when they want them back.

How NFL playoff seeding works

Seven teams in each conference make the playoffs. The four division winners take seeds 1 to 4, ordered by record, and a division winner is seeded above a wild card even when its record is worse. The three best remaining teams in the conference are the wild cards, seeds 5 to 7. The No. 1 seed gets a bye. In the first round the 2 seed hosts the 7, the 3 hosts the 6 and the 4 hosts the 5. After that the NFL reseeds, so the best seed left hosts the lowest one left.

How ties are broken

Teams with the same record are not ordered by chance or by name. A division tie is settled by head-to-head record, then record in the division, in common games, in the conference, strength of victory and strength of schedule. A wild-card tie starts with head-to-head (or a head-to-head sweep when three or more teams are level), then conference record, common games with a minimum of four, strength of victory and strength of schedule. When several teams from one division are tied for a wild card, they are first cut to the best team from each division. When three or more teams are tied, the steps are applied to all of them together, and as soon as one team comes out ahead the rest start again from the top.

Used on every projection here: head-to-head record, record in division games, record in common games, record in conference games, strength of victory, strength of schedule, head-to-head sweep. The steps after those compare points (combined rank in points scored and allowed, conference; combined rank in points scored and allowed, league; net points in common games; net points in all games; net points in conference games), so they are used only once every game of the season has a real score. A projected game has no score, so they cannot be used on one. Net touchdowns and the final coin toss are not supported at all. When a tie goes that far, the page says so and shows the teams in a fixed order by name, rather than pretending a rule decided it.

Where the playoff odds come from

The odds are worked out by playing the rest of the season thousands of times. Every team gets an Elo rating built from this season’s final scores alone, with the same method behind our Blogger vs. the Math page, and that rating gives each open game a win chance, with a small edge for the home team. The games you picked are treated as played, so the odds change as you pick. Each run produces a full set of standings with the same tiebreakers the page uses, and the odds are how often a team made the playoffs, won its division or took the No. 1 seed. The same simulated seasons are used for every comparison, so “if they win out” and “if they lose out” differ only because of the games they change.

This is a model, not a forecast. It knows nothing about injuries, quarterbacks, weather or last year, it starts every team at the same rating, and it does not simulate ties. Early in the season a few games decide a lot, so the odds are rough until more results are in. They are shown as “<1%” or “>99%” rather than 0 or 100 unless the standings themselves say the matter is settled.

A simulation, not official standings

The standings and the bracket are a projection from the picks you make. They are not the NFL’s standings. Results come in with our weekly data refresh (last run 2026-10-09), so a game played this week may not show as final until the next one. “Clinched” and “Eliminated” are shown only when the games left cannot change the answer even if every tiebreaker went the other way, so the page can be a little slower than the NFL to call a team in or out, but it will not call one wrongly.

Schedule and scores: the nflverse nfldata games file, CC BY 4.0. Tiebreaking follows the NFL’s published procedures. Standings and tiebreakers calculated by Raiders Rundown.

See how this week’s games stack up, position group by position group