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The Lab · 2026 season

Will it last?

The Raiders' loudest numbers after 4 games, tested against every team since 1999 that started the same way. Press play to see what happened to them, then filter by team or playoff result, or compare with any Raiders season.

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Defense

Raiders Rundown

The Lab · Will it last?

2026 Raiders · 3-1 after 4 games

156 teams since 1999 started at least as well as the 2026 Raiders at takeaways through 4 games. 96% finished the year closer to average.

Each dot is one team in one season: its takeaways per game through its first 4 games, then over the rest of that season. The Raiders are at 2.25, 1st of 32 teams.

Likely to fade

One dot is one teamEach dot is one team in one season since 1999. Filled blue dots made the playoffs, hollow orange rings did not, and gold rings are earlier Raiders teams. Tap a dot to pin it.
Further right is betterLeft to right is takeaways per game. More is better for a team, so the right side is where you want to be.
Press play to see the next gamesEach dot slides from where its team stood after 4 games to where it stood over the rest of its season. The Raiders have 13 games left.

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Which teams

Team

Season result

Seasons

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Compare with a Raiders season (1999 to 2025). Pick one to pin it and see how it started and ended.

Games 1–4

Group average2.58league 1.49

Closer to average0%of 156

Dots go up with

Where the 156 highlighted teams stood after their first 4 games, with every other team faint behind them.

Teams before 2021 played 16 games, so their second block ends at game 16.

Hover or tap a dot to see which team it is, its record and whether it made the playoffs. Click one to pin it.

Made the playoffs
Missed the playoffs
An earlier Raiders team (dashed ring if they missed)
Not in the group you picked
Group average, moving as you play
Where the middle half finished
How many teams sit at each value
The 2026 Raiders now

Their average start: 2.58; through 4 games
Their average finish: 1.65; rest of the season
Moved toward average: 96%; of 156 teams
Typical finish for a team like this: 1.60; league average is 1.49
Raiders seasons in this group: 4 of 4; moved toward average

Across every team since 1999, about 15% of a team’s distance from average over its first 4 games was still there over the rest of its season.

What that meant in wins and playoffs

Their win rate fell from 67% in the first 4 games to 54% after, still above the average team's 50%. 51% made the playoffs, against 39% of all teams.

Won in their first 4 games67%
Yellow tick, the Raiders now: 3-1, 75%.
Won over the rest of the season54%
About 6.5 wins in 12 games. Every team: 50%.
Made the playoffs51%
Every team: 39%.

For scale: at 54%, a team wins about 7.0 of 13 games, and at 50% about 6.5. In the second and third bars the yellow tick marks the average team. These are results, not a forecast: one stat does not decide a season, and these teams differed in other ways too.

How often teams made the playoffs, by takeaways

Every team since 1999, split into five equal groups by their takeaways through 4 games. The Raiders (2.25, 1st of 32 now) are in the best fifth, where 51% of teams made the playoffs.

best fifth
51%
2.00 to 4.25The Raiders are here
second fifth
41%
1.75 to 2.00
middle fifth
37%
1.25 to 1.75
fourth fifth
36%
1.00 to 1.25
worst fifth
30%
0.00 to 1.00

Made the playoffs, as a share of teams in each group. A stat that lines up with winning will show a steep drop from left to right, but teams differ in many other ways, so this is a pattern, not a cause.

The Raiders’ playoff checklist

Every stat, ranked by how much it has separated playoff teams from the rest after 4 games (best fifth of teams against worst fifth). The big number and bar are how often teams that stood where the 2026 Raiders stand made the playoffs. Select one to see it in the chart.

See every team in this chart (156)

156 teams. Select a team to pin it in the chart.

Highlighted teams, closest to the 2026 Raiders first unless you sort, with their takeaways per game through 4 games and over the rest of the season, their records and whether they made the playoffs.

2-2	2.25	1.67	Toward average	6-10	Missed
4-0	2.25	1.83	Toward average	8-8	Missed
1-3	2.25	2.17	Toward average	8-8	Missed
2-2	2.25	1.33	Toward average	6-10	Missed
3-1	2.25	2.17	Toward average	9-7	Made it
4-0	2.25	1.50	Toward average	10-6	Made it
2-2	2.25	1.67	Toward average	6-10	Missed
3-1	2.25	2.33	Away from average	12-4	Made it
2-2	2.25	1.17	Toward average	6-10	Missed
0-4	2.25	2.25	Away from average	8-8	Missed
2-2	2.25	1.42	Toward average	4-12	Missed
3-1	2.25	1.50	Toward average	6-10	Missed
4-0	2.25	1.58	Toward average	8-8	Missed
2-2	2.25	0.83	Toward average	5-11	Missed
4-0	2.25	1.58	Toward average	12-4	Made it
3-1	2.25	1.42	Toward average	10-6	Made it
1-3	2.25	2.08	Toward average	7-9	Missed
4-0	2.25	1.75	Toward average	11-5	Made it
2-2	2.25	1.25	Toward average	4-12	Missed
3-1	2.25	2.08	Toward average	13-3	Made it
3-1	2.25	1.58	Toward average	11-5	Made it
4-0	2.25	1.50	Toward average	11-5	Made it
3-1	2.25	1.08	Toward average	7-9	Missed
3-1	2.25	1.42	Toward average	8-8	Missed
4-0	2.25	1.42	Toward average	12-4	Made it
4-0	2.25	1.92	Toward average	13-3	Made it
2-2	2.25	1.58	Toward average	4-12	Missed
2-2	2.25	1.42	Toward average	6-10	Missed
2-2	2.25	1.83	Toward average	9-7	Missed
3-1	2.25	1.67	Toward average	12-4	Made it
3-1	2.25	1.50	Toward average	9-7	Missed
0-4	2.25	1.67	Toward average	2-14	Missed
2-2	2.25	2.42	Away from average	10-6	Missed
3-1	2.25	1.58	Toward average	11-5	Made it
2-2	2.25	1.92	Toward average	8-8	Missed
4-0	2.25	1.92	Toward average	5-11	Missed
0-4	2.25	1.83	Toward average	5-11	Missed
2-2	2.25	1.83	Toward average	10-6	Made it
1-3	2.25	1.67	Toward average	12-4	Made it
3-1	2.25	1.42	Toward average	7-9	Missed
3-1	2.25	1.92	Toward average	9-7	Missed
2-2	2.25	1.33	Toward average	8-8	Missed
2-2	2.25	1.58	Toward average	8-8	Missed
4-0	2.25	2.17	Toward average	15-1	Made it
1-3	2.25	1.17	Toward average	7-9	Missed
3-1	2.25	0.75	Toward average	4-12	Missed
2-2	2.25	1.25	Toward average	7-9	Missed
2-1-1	2.25	0.75	Toward average	3-12-1	Missed
4-0	2.25	1.46	Toward average	11-6	Made it
3-1	2.25	1.39	Toward average	11-6	Made it
2-2	2.25	1.08	Toward average	10-7	Made it
2-2	2.25	1.31	Toward average	9-8	Made it
2-2	2.25	0.92	Toward average	8-9	Made it
2-2	2.25	1.85	Toward average	11-6	Made it
3-1	2.50	1.67	Toward average	14-2	Made it
2-2	2.50	2.83	Away from average	9-7	Missed
3-1	2.50	3.00	Away from average	12-4	Made it
3-1	2.50	2.08	Toward average	12-4	Made it
1-3	2.50	2.00	Toward average	1-15	Missed
3-1	2.50	2.17	Toward average	13-3	Made it
4-0	2.50	1.83	Toward average	14-2	Made it
3-1	2.50	1.50	Toward average	7-9	Missed
3-1	2.50	1.83	Toward average	7-9	Missed
2-2	2.50	2.08	Toward average	10-6	Made it
2-2	2.50	1.83	Toward average	7-9	Missed
4-0	2.50	2.08	Toward average	14-2	Made it
4-0	2.50	1.67	Toward average	10-6	Made it
3-1	2.50	1.67	Toward average	8-8	Missed
1-3	2.50	1.92	Toward average	11-5	Made it
3-1	2.50	1.50	Toward average	6-10	Missed
1-3	2.50	2.08	Toward average	7-9	Missed
1-3	2.50	1.58	Toward average	8-8	Missed
3-1	2.50	2.00	Toward average	10-6	Made it
2-2	2.50	1.67	Toward average	9-6-1	Made it
4-0	2.50	1.42	Toward average	8-8	Missed
2-2	2.50	2.42	Toward average	11-5	Made it
4-0	2.50	2.00	Toward average	13-3	Made it
3-1	2.50	1.42	Toward average	13-3	Made it
3-1	2.50	2.00	Toward average	11-5	Made it
2-2	2.50	1.25	Toward average	7-9	Missed
3-1	2.50	1.33	Toward average	6-10	Missed
4-0	2.50	1.83	Toward average	10-6	Made it
2-2	2.50	1.58	Toward average	6-10	Missed
3-1	2.50	0.92	Toward average	7-9	Missed
4-0	2.50	0.92	Toward average	11-5	Made it
4-0	2.50	1.25	Toward average	12-4	Made it
2-2	2.50	1.58	Toward average	12-4	Made it
4-0	2.50	1.33	Toward average	8-8	Missed
2-2	2.50	1.58	Toward average	10-6	Made it
3-1	2.50	2.08	Toward average	12-4	Made it
3-1	2.50	1.25	Toward average	7-9	Missed
1-3	2.50	0.83	Toward average	4-12	Missed
4-0	2.50	1.25	Toward average	13-3	Made it
3-1	2.50	0.92	Toward average	11-5	Made it
3-1	2.50	1.85	Toward average	12-5	Made it
4-0	2.50	1.31	Toward average	14-3	Made it
3-1	2.50	1.54	Toward average	11-6	Made it
3-1	2.50	1.31	Toward average	12-5	Made it
3-1	2.50	1.23	Toward average	9-8	Made it
2-2	2.50	0.61	Toward average	5-12	Missed
3-1	2.50	1.31	Toward average	10-7	Made it
1-3	2.75	1.33	Toward average	6-10	Missed
3-1	2.75	1.75	Toward average	8-8	Made it
1-3	2.75	1.83	Toward average	3-13	Missed
3-1	2.75	2.42	Toward average	9-7	Missed
2-2	2.75	1.42	Toward average	11-5	Made it
3-1	2.75	2.67	Toward average	10-6	Made it
3-1	2.75	2.58	Toward average	7-9	Missed
2-2	2.75	2.08	Toward average	10-6	Made it
3-1	2.75	2.58	Toward average	12-4	Made it
3-1	2.75	1.58	Toward average	9-7	Missed
1-3	2.75	1.42	Toward average	6-10	Missed
3-1	2.75	1.00	Toward average	6-10	Missed
3-1	2.75	1.67	Toward average	15-1	Made it
2-2	2.75	1.58	Toward average	5-11	Missed
4-0	2.75	1.42	Toward average	13-3	Made it
2-2	2.75	1.08	Toward average	4-12	Missed
2-2	2.75	1.08	Toward average	9-7	Missed
4-0	2.75	2.42	Toward average	15-1	Made it
3-1	2.75	2.08	Toward average	13-3	Made it
4-0	2.75	1.42	Toward average	13-3	Made it
2-2	2.75	2.42	Toward average	12-4	Made it
4-0	2.75	1.67	Toward average	11-5	Made it
1-3	2.75	0.67	Toward average	5-10-1	Missed
2-2	2.75	1.83	Toward average	9-7	Missed
3-1	2.75	1.58	Toward average	9-7	Missed
4-0	2.75	1.92	Toward average	12-4	Made it
2-2	2.75	1.46	Toward average	11-6	Made it
4-0	2.75	1.61	Toward average	14-3	Made it
3-1	3.00	1.17	Toward average	8-8	Missed
2-2	3.00	1.83	Toward average	8-8	Missed
0-4	3.00	3.08	Away from average	5-11	Missed
4-0	3.00	1.58	Toward average	11-5	Made it
4-0	3.00	1.92	Toward average	9-7	Missed
4-0	3.00	2.33	Toward average	13-3	Made it
3-1	3.00	1.42	Toward average	8-8	Missed
4-0	3.00	1.25	Toward average	13-3	Made it
3-1	3.00	1.92	Toward average	11-5	Made it
0-4	3.00	1.33	Toward average	6-10	Missed
3-1	3.00	1.75	Toward average	12-4	Made it
3-1	3.00	1.42	Toward average	10-6	Missed
4-0	3.00	2.08	Toward average	13-3	Made it
1-2-1	3.00	1.33	Toward average	7-8-1	Missed
3-1	3.00	1.39	Toward average	13-4	Made it
2-2	3.25	2.58	Toward average	11-5	Made it
3-1	3.25	1.83	Toward average	12-4	Made it
4-0	3.25	1.75	Toward average	13-3	Made it
3-1	3.25	1.25	Toward average	6-10	Missed
3-1	3.25	1.67	Toward average	9-7	Made it
3-1	3.25	1.75	Toward average	7-9	Missed
3-1	3.25	1.17	Toward average	8-8	Missed
3-1	3.50	1.33	Toward average	5-11	Missed
3-1	3.50	1.83	Toward average	11-5	Made it
3-1	3.50	1.00	Toward average	12-4	Made it
3-1	3.50	2.33	Toward average	10-6	Missed
4-0	4.25	2.08	Toward average	11-5	Made it

The bottom line

Some of it will fade. Some of it will come back.

Takeaways and pass protection are the kind of numbers that cool off: teams that started this well gave back most of the edge. Running game and red-zone defense are the kind that bounce back: teams that started this poorly usually got closer to average. None of this is a prediction for one game. It is what happened to teams that looked like the 2026 Raiders after 4 games. Of the 220 teams since 1999 that started 3-1, 65% made the playoffs and the average one finished with 9.9 wins.

How to read this

Each dot is one team in one season. It starts where that team stood on a stat through its first 4 games and moves to where it stood over the rest of that season. 4 games is a small sample, and an extreme start is partly luck, which is why teams tend to drift back toward average. It is not all luck: teams that start well still finish better than average, just not as far above it.

The “typical finish” uses every team since 1999, not only the extreme ones: it takes the share of an early gap from average that usually carried over and applies it to the Raiders’ number. The league average moves a little each year, so a few dots can sit on the wrong side of it. Every regular season from 1999 to 2025 is here, 855 team-seasons in all, including all 27 Raiders teams. Six teams from 1999 and 2000 are left out because the open data is missing some of their games. Stats are defined exactly as they are on the scouting reports.

Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. History covers every regular season from 1999 to 2025. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.