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Accuracy over expected: quarterbacks ranked

His completion rate compared with what each throw was expected to be, given depth, pressure and where the receiver was. +3 means he completes 3 more of every 100 throws than an average passer would on the same throws.

Why the box score misses it: Completion percentage rewards the quarterback who throws short and punishes the one who throws deep.

Best so far: Lamar Jackson (BAL), +8.1 pts. A typical quarterback is +1.6 pts. Players need at least 40 dropbacks to qualify, so nobody is ranked on a handful of plays.

Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days

38 of 38 quarterbacks

CPOE leaders among quarterbacks
Player
1
Lamar JacksonQB · BALElite
+8.1 pts93–
2
Drew LockQB · SEAElite
+6.9 pts48–
3
Tyler HuntleyQB · BALElite
+6.9 pts40–
4
Drake MayeQB · NEElite
+6.4 pts141+16.0grade points upLeaning that way
5
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIWell above typical
+6.0 pts48–
6
Joe BurrowQB · CINWell above typical
+6.0 pts185+11.3grade points upLeaning that way
7
Kyler MurrayQB · MINWell above typical
+5.6 pts89+21.6grade points upLeaning that way
8
Josh AllenQB · BUFWell above typical
+5.5 pts111−2.3grade points down
9
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXWell above typical
+5.4 pts134−5.8grade points downWithin the noise
10
Bryce YoungQB · CARWell above typical
+4.8 pts143−5.0grade points downWithin the noise
11
Brock PurdyQB · SFAbove typical
+4.6 pts136−4.2grade points downWithin the noise
12
Geno SmithQB · NYJAbove typical
+4.0 pts136−30.0grade points downA clear change
13
Marcus MariotaQB · WASAbove typical
+3.3 pts50–
14
Sam DarnoldQB · SEAAbove typical
+3.1 pts89−6.7grade points downWithin the noise
15
Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIAbove typical
+1.9 pts192−4.6grade points downWithin the noise
16
Cam WardQB · TENTypical
+1.8 pts141+1.4grade points up
17
Kirk CousinsQB · LVTypical
+1.7 pts163−8.1grade points downLeaning that way
18
C.J. StroudQB · HOUTypical
+1.7 pts167+24.4grade points upA clear change
19
Jayden DanielsQB · WASTypical
+1.7 pts67–
20
Tyler ShoughQB · NOTypical
+1.5 pts193−8.6grade points downLeaning that way
21
Dak PrescottQB · DALTypical
+1.2 pts181−11.2grade points downLeaning that way
22
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLTypical
+1.1 pts74−15.3grade points downLeaning that way
23
Tyson BagentQB · CHITypical
+0.9 pts58–
24
Jared GoffQB · DETBelow typical
+0.9 pts185−5.7grade points downWithin the noise
25
Case KeenumQB · CHIBelow typical
+0.2 pts53–
26
Baker MayfieldQB · TBBelow typical
+0.1 pts92–
27
Jalon DanielsQB · TBBelow typical
−0.0 pts53–
28
Patrick MahomesQB · KCBelow typical
−0.2 pts115+11.2grade points upWithin the noise
29
Matthew StaffordQB · LARWell below typical
−0.2 pts152−3.2grade points downWithin the noise
30
Jalen HurtsQB · PHIWell below typical
−2.5 pts141−32.7grade points downA clear change
31
Deshaun WatsonQB · CLEWell below typical
−2.7 pts144−8.1grade points downLeaning that way
32
Daniel JonesQB · INDWell below typical
−2.8 pts164−4.8grade points downWithin the noise
33
Aaron RodgersQB · PITWell below typical
−2.9 pts171even
34
Jordan LoveQB · GBWell below typical
−3.2 pts179+35.2grade points upA clear change
35
Bo NixQB · DENAmong the weakest
−3.3 pts144even
36
Justin HerbertQB · LACAmong the weakest
−5.0 pts134even
37
Jameis WinstonQB · NYGAmong the weakest
−5.7 pts127+28.2grade points upA clear change
38
Malik WillisQB · MIAAmong the weakest
−6.7 pts126+8.3grade points upWithin the noise
How to read this table
  • The number on the left is the league rank among quarterbacks, even when the list is filtered to one team.
  • “Against the league” draws each player on the same strip: the ends are the 10th-best and 90th-best player, the shaded stretch is the middle half, and the tick is the median. Right is always better.
  • “Lately” is the change in grade between a player's last 2 games and the games before them. The tag says whether the change is bigger than what a few plays could cause.
  • Tick “Show the box score” to put the traditional totals next to the advanced number and sort by either.

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Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

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