Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days
The read
The number holding him back is EPA per dropback: −0.25, 38th of 40.
Lately he is playing worse. EPA per dropback is −0.41 over the last 2 games (60 dropbacks), against −0.15 before that. A few plays could easily explain this. Worth watching, not worth believing yet.
Written from his numbers, not from film. 5 games are behind the season figures.
How he stacks up
Every graded stat at a glance, against all the quarterbacks in the league.
Bad throws2217.3%30th of 38small sample
Success rate1037%36th of 40
Sack rate1010.3%36th of 40small sample
Accuracy over expected5−5.0 pts36th of 38small sample
EPA per dropback5−0.2538th of 40
Left is the worst at his job, right is the best, and the line down the middle is average. The bubble is his percentile: 90 means better than nine in ten qualifying quarterbacks. Faded bars are still small samples.
How he has progressed
Where he has ranked among quarterbacks after each week, and every game behind it.
Season rank slipped: 35th to 5th percentile since Wk 1.
The line is his season-to-date rank among players at his position after each week, from 100 (the best) to 0 (the worst). It rises when he passes other players, not when he has one big game. Early weeks are noisier because fewer plays are behind them. The shaded weeks are the recent stretch.
EPA per dropback game by game
Week
Opponent
That game
dropbacks
Season rank after
1
vs ARI
−0.19
30
35th pct
2
vs LV
−0.02
30
22nd pct
3
vs BUF
−0.24
35
19th pct
4
vs SEA
−0.27
32
15th pct
5
vs DEN
−0.57
28
5th pct
One game is a small sample: a single stat over 31 dropbacks can swing on a handful of plays. Shaded rows are the recent stretch.
The numbers, in context
Each one against every quarterback with at least 40 dropbacks. Right on the strip is better.
EPA per dropback
▼Among the weakest
−0.25
38th of 40 quarterbacks · bottom 8%
−0.19worse to better+0.27
Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. Sacks, scrambles and throwaways all count, so it is everything he does when he drops back, not just the completions.
The box score: Passing yards and touchdowns ignore down, distance and sacks, so a 6-yard checkdown on 3rd-and-12 looks like a good play.
Does it show up in winning? Across 151 games league-wide, teams won 84% of the time when their quarterback was in the best third on EPA per dropback, and 28% when he was in the worst third.
Success rate
▼Well below typical
37%
36th of 40 quarterbacks · bottom 13%
37%worse to better51%
How often a dropback gains enough to keep the offense on schedule: about 40% of the yards needed on first down, 60% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
The box score: Yards per attempt cannot tell a gain that helped from one that did not.
Does it show up in winning? Across 151 games league-wide, teams won 74% of the time when their quarterback was in the best third on success rate, and 36% when he was in the worst third.
Accuracy over expected
▼Among the weakest
−5.0 pts
36th of 38 quarterbacks · bottom 8%
−3.2 ptsworse to better+6.1 pts
His completion rate compared with what each throw was expected to be, given depth, pressure and where the receiver was. +3 means he completes 3 more of every 100 throws than an average passer would on the same throws.
The box score: Completion percentage rewards the quarterback who throws short and punishes the one who throws deep.
Does it show up in winning? Across 145 games league-wide, teams won 70% of the time when their quarterback was in the best third on accuracy over expected, and 31% when he was in the worst third.
Bad throws
▼Well below typical
17.3%lower is better
30th of 38 quarterbacks · bottom 24%
19.0%worse to better10.0%
The share of his attempts that Pro Football Reference's charters called a bad throw: off target, not just incomplete. Fewer is better.
The box score: An incompletion also blames him for a drop or a throwaway.
Does it show up in winning? Across 124 games league-wide, teams won 66% of the time when their quarterback was in the best third on bad throws, and 39% when he was in the worst third.
Sack rate
▼Well below typical
10.3%lower is better
36th of 40 quarterbacks · bottom 13%
10.4%worse to better3.7%
Sacks as a share of his dropbacks. It is the quarterback and the line together. Fewer is better.
The box score: A sack total depends on how often he drops back.
Does it show up in winning? Across 151 games league-wide, teams won 55% of the time when their quarterback was in the best third on sack rate, and 37% when he was in the worst third.
How he plays
Tendencies: how his game differs from the quarterbacks around him. These are not better or worse, only different, and often say as much about the offense or defense he plays in as about him.
Average depth of throw
Style
8.7 yds
Throws it deep, more than most quarterbacks. A typical one is 8.0 yds.
6.5 ydslow to high9.7 yds
How far past the line of scrimmage the ball travels, on average. It is a style, not a skill.
Deep throws
Style
13%
Right around the middle of quarterbacks: a typical one is 11%.
8%low to high17%
The share of his throws that travel 20 or more yards in the air.
Play-action dropbacks
Style
24%
Right around the middle of quarterbacks: a typical one is 23%.
17%low to high33%
How often a dropback starts with a fake handoff.
Blitzed
Style
25%
Is rarely blitzed, more than most quarterbacks. A typical one is 32%.
21%low to high47%
How often defenses send an extra rusher at him.
Leaves the pocket
Style
27%
Plays outside the pocket, and more so than almost any of the quarterbacks. A typical one is 18%.
8%low to high24%
How often he is outside the pocket when he throws or is sacked.
Playing time
He has played in 4 of his team's 4 games with snap counts, on the field for about 100% of the team's offensive plays when he plays.
100%
ARI
100%
LV
100%
BUF
100%
SEA
?
DEN
Each column is a game: the share of his team's offensive snaps he played. 80% means about 8 of every 10 plays. “Out” means he did not play; a question mark means snap counts are not posted yet. Shaded games are the recent stretch.
Game by game
Every game this season: how it ended for his team, how much he played, his box score, and the advanced numbers from that one game. One game is a small sample, so read the right-hand columns as a snapshot, not his level.
Justin Herbert game by game
Game
Result
Snaps
Att
Cmp
Yds
TD
Int
Sacked
EPA/dropback
Success
CPOE
Bad throws
Wk 1vs ARI
L 14–26
100%
30
17
187
1
1
3
−0.19
43%
−6.2 pts
16.7%
Wk 2vs LV
L 14–26
100%
30
15
183
1
2
3
−0.02
40%
−6.3 pts
20.0%
Wk 3vs BUF
L 16–24
100%
35
19
211
1
1
2
−0.24
34%
−1.9 pts
11.4%
Wk 4vs SEA
L 23–30
100%
32
17
158
1
2
3
−0.27
34%
−5.1 pts
21.9%
Wk 5vs DEN
L 17–23
–
28
14
82
1
1
5
−0.57
32%
−6.6 pts
–
The box score
The traditional totals, with where each ranks among quarterbacks. A total rewards volume, which is why the advanced numbers above matter.
Ranks are among players at the same job who have enough plays to be graded. Grades and rankings come from play-by-play, charting and snap-count data, so they cannot see blocking, route running or assignments. See how the grades work.
Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.
