EPA per dropback: quarterbacks ranked

Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. Sacks, scrambles and throwaways all count, so it is everything he does when he drops back, not just the completions.

Why the box score misses it: Passing yards and touchdowns ignore down, distance and sacks, so a 6-yard checkdown on 3rd-and-12 looks like a good play.

Best so far: Drew Lock (SEA), +0.45. A typical quarterback is +0.01. Players need at least 40 dropbacks to qualify, so nobody is ranked on a handful of plays.

Grades updated Mon, Oct 12, 3:02 AM ETRechecked every few hours on game days

TeamPlayerShow the box score

40 of 40 quarterbacks

EPA/dropback leaders among quarterbacks
	Player		Against the league
1	Drew LockQB · SEAElite	+0.45	Elite	50	–
2	Brock PurdyQB · SFElite	+0.44	Elite	142	−15.7grade points downA clear change
3	Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLElite	+0.37	Elite	81	−1.2grade points down
4	Lamar JacksonQB · BALElite	+0.36	Elite	101	–
5	Jared GoffQB · DETWell above typical	+0.26	Well above typical	199	+3.5grade points upWithin the noise
6	Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXWell above typical	+0.25	Well above typical	150	+5.8grade points upWithin the noise
7	Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIWell above typical	+0.21	Well above typical	58	–
8	Bryce YoungQB · CARWell above typical	+0.17	Well above typical	167	even
8	Josh AllenQB · BUFWell above typical	+0.17	Well above typical	129	−18.9grade points downA clear change
10	Dak PrescottQB · DALWell above typical	+0.16	Well above typical	194	−1.5grade points down
11	Drake MayeQB · NEAbove typical	+0.15	Above typical	160	+34.5grade points upA clear change
12	Kirk CousinsQB · LVAbove typical	+0.15	Above typical	179	+4.4grade points upWithin the noise
13	Patrick MahomesQB · KCAbove typical	+0.13	Above typical	132	+5.5grade points upWithin the noise
14	Joe BurrowQB · CINAbove typical	+0.13	Above typical	197	+4.9grade points upWithin the noise
15	Marcus MariotaQB · WASAbove typical	+0.12	Above typical	54	–
16	Jordan LoveQB · GBAbove typical	+0.09	Above typical	194	+19.3grade points upA clear change
17	C.J. StroudQB · HOUTypical	+0.08	Typical	190	+20.2grade points upA clear change
18	Carson WentzQB · MINTypical	+0.05	Typical	45	–
19	Matthew StaffordQB · LARTypical	+0.03	Typical	164	−3.6grade points downWithin the noise
20	Jalon DanielsQB · TBTypical	+0.02	Typical	59	–
21	Geno SmithQB · NYJTypical	+0.01	Typical	161	−19.8grade points downA clear change
22	Sam DarnoldQB · SEATypical	−0.01	Typical	101	−14.9grade points downLeaning that way
23	Deshaun WatsonQB · CLETypical	−0.02	Typical	166	−1.8grade points down
24	Jayden DanielsQB · WASTypical	−0.02	Typical	83	−1.9grade points down
25	Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIBelow typical	−0.02	Below typical	208	−8.3grade points downLeaning that way
26	Jameis WinstonQB · NYGBelow typical	−0.05	Below typical	142	+24.4grade points upA clear change
27	Tyler ShoughQB · NOBelow typical	−0.05	Below typical	215	−4.5grade points downWithin the noise
28	Jalen HurtsQB · PHIBelow typical	−0.07	Below typical	165	−3.1grade points downWithin the noise
29	Bo NixQB · DENBelow typical	−0.08	Below typical	167	+3.0grade points upWithin the noise
30	Tyler HuntleyQB · BALBelow typical	−0.08	Below typical	45	–
31	Case KeenumQB · CHIWell below typical	−0.09	Well below typical	55	–
32	Tyson BagentQB · CHIWell below typical	−0.10	Well below typical	66	–
33	Aaron RodgersQB · PITWell below typical	−0.11	Well below typical	196	+10.9grade points upLeaning that way
34	Kyler MurrayQB · MINWell below typical	−0.17	Well below typical	108	+16.8grade points upLeaning that way
35	Cam WardQB · TENWell below typical	−0.17	Well below typical	164	−5.6grade points downWithin the noise
36	Daniel JonesQB · INDWell below typical	−0.19	Well below typical	183	even
37	Malik WillisQB · MIAAmong the weakest	−0.20	Among the weakest	142	−12.1grade points downLeaning that way
38	Justin HerbertQB · LACAmong the weakest	−0.25	Among the weakest	155	−9.9grade points downLeaning that way
39	Baker MayfieldQB · TBAmong the weakest	−0.33	Among the weakest	108	–
40	Cooper RushQB · ATLAmong the weakest	−0.72	Among the weakest	43	–

How to read this table

The number on the left is the league rank among quarterbacks, even when the list is filtered to one team.
“Against the league” draws each player on the same strip: the ends are the 10th-best and 90th-best player, the shaded stretch is the middle half, and the tick is the median. Right is always better.
“Lately” is the change in grade between a player's last 2 games and the games before them. The tag says whether the change is bigger than what a few plays could cause.
Tick “Show the box score” to put the traditional totals next to the advanced number and sort by either.

Other leaderboards

Quarterbacks

Running backs

Wide receivers

Tight ends

Edge rushers

Interior linemen

Linebackers

Cornerbacks

Safeties

Kickers

Punters

Punt returners

Kick returners

13 positions · 10 advanced stats here · Compare two players

← All players

Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

More from the Lab

All 9 tools →