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MIN Minnesota Vikings · QB· #11

Carson Wentz

Age
33
Height
6'5"
Weight
237 lbs
College
North Dakota State
Drafted
2016, No. 2 overall (PHI)
Experience
11th NFL season
Compare with another playerQuarterbacks leaderboard

44

Overall grade

30th of 40 quarterbacks

Below typical

below average; 50 is average

Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days

The read

Carson grades below average among quarterbacks so far, with no number far from the middle.

Not playing lately: He played in 2 of his team's first 3 games, then did not play in the last 1 game.

Written from his numbers, not from film. 2 games are behind the season figures.

How he stacks up

Every graded stat at a glance, against all the quarterbacks in the league.

  • EPA per dropback+0.0518th of 40small sample
  • Success rate40%30th of 40small sample
  • Bad throws17.8%32nd of 38small sample
  • Sack rate13.3%40th of 40small sample

Left is the worst at his job, right is the best, and the line down the middle is average. The bubble is his percentile: 90 means better than nine in ten qualifying quarterbacks. Faded bars are still small samples.

How he has progressed

Where he has ranked among quarterbacks after each week, and every game behind it.

WorstMiddleBestrecent12345Week 2: 50th percentile50th

Not enough games yet to draw a line.

The line is his season-to-date rank among players at his position after each week, from 100 (the best) to 0 (the worst). It rises when he passes other players, not when he has one big game. Early weeks are noisier because fewer plays are behind them. The shaded weeks are the recent stretch.

EPA per dropback game by game
WeekOpponentThat gamedropbacksSeason rank after
1vs GB+0.0922–
2vs CHI+0.022350th pct

One game is a small sample: a single stat over 23 dropbacks can swing on a handful of plays. Shaded rows are the recent stretch.

The numbers, in context

Each one against every quarterback with at least 40 dropbacks. Right on the strip is better.

EPA per dropback

Typical

+0.05

18th of 40 quarterbacks · top 45%

Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. Sacks, scrambles and throwaways all count, so it is everything he does when he drops back, not just the completions.

The box score: Passing yards and touchdowns ignore down, distance and sacks, so a 6-yard checkdown on 3rd-and-12 looks like a good play.

Does it show up in winning? Across 151 games league-wide, teams won 84% of the time when their quarterback was in the best third on EPA per dropback, and 28% when he was in the worst third.

Small sample: could move a lot · 45 dropbacks · true level likely −0.32 to +0.43

Success rate

Below typical

40%

30th of 40 quarterbacks · bottom 28%

How often a dropback gains enough to keep the offense on schedule: about 40% of the yards needed on first down, 60% on second, all of them on third and fourth.

The box score: Yards per attempt cannot tell a gain that helped from one that did not.

Does it show up in winning? Across 151 games league-wide, teams won 74% of the time when their quarterback was in the best third on success rate, and 36% when he was in the worst third.

Small sample: could move a lot · 45 dropbacks · true level likely 28% to 52%

Bad throws

Well below typical

17.8%lower is better

32nd of 38 quarterbacks · bottom 19%

The share of his attempts that Pro Football Reference's charters called a bad throw: off target, not just incomplete. Fewer is better.

The box score: An incompletion also blames him for a drop or a throwaway.

Does it show up in winning? Across 124 games league-wide, teams won 66% of the time when their quarterback was in the best third on bad throws, and 39% when he was in the worst third.

Small sample: could move a lot · 45 attempts · true level likely 8.1% to 27.4%

Sack rate

Among the weakest

13.3%lower is better

40th of 40 quarterbacks · bottom 3%

Sacks as a share of his dropbacks. It is the quarterback and the line together. Fewer is better.

The box score: A sack total depends on how often he drops back.

Does it show up in winning? Across 151 games league-wide, teams won 55% of the time when their quarterback was in the best third on sack rate, and 37% when he was in the worst third.

Small sample: could move a lot · 45 dropbacks · true level likely 4.6% to 22.1%

How he plays

Tendencies: how his game differs from the quarterbacks around him. These are not better or worse, only different, and often say as much about the offense or defense he plays in as about him.

Play-action dropbacks

Style

33%

Leans on play-action, and more so than almost any of the quarterbacks. A typical one is 23%.

How often a dropback starts with a fake handoff.

Small sample: could move a lot · 45 dropbacks

Blitzed

Style

47%

Is blitzed often, and more so than almost any of the quarterbacks. A typical one is 32%.

How often defenses send an extra rusher at him.

Small sample: could move a lot · 45 dropbacks

Leaves the pocket

Style

7%

Stays in the pocket, and more so than almost any of the quarterbacks. A typical one is 18%.

How often he is outside the pocket when he throws or is sacked.

Sample still growing · 45 dropbacks

Playing time

He has played in 2 of his team's 4 games with snap counts, on the field for about 92% of the team's offensive plays when he plays.

Not playing lately. He played in 2 of his team's first 3 games, then did not play in the last 1 game.

Each column is a game: the share of his team's offensive snaps he played. 80% means about 8 of every 10 plays. “Out” means he did not play; a question mark means snap counts are not posted yet. Shaded games are the recent stretch.

Game by game

Every game this season: how it ended for his team, how much he played, his box score, and the advanced numbers from that one game. One game is a small sample, so read the right-hand columns as a snapshot, not his level.

Carson Wentz game by game
GameResultSnapsAttCmpYdsTDIntSackedEPA/dropbackSuccessBad throws
Wk 1 vs GBW 39–2283%221199303+0.0941%22.7%
Wk 2 vs CHIW 9–3100%2311127003+0.0239%13.0%

The box score

The traditional totals, with where each ranks among quarterbacks. A total rewards volume, which is why the advanced numbers above matter.

Carson Wentz box score totals
StatTotalRank
Pass attempts4538th of 40
Completions2239th of 40
Passing yards22639th of 40
Passing touchdowns327th of 40
Interceptions thrown033rd of 40
Times sacked625th of 40

Players with a similar profile

The quarterbacks whose grades are closest to his across the same stats. Similar means similar numbers, not the same style of play.

Ranks are among players at the same job who have enough plays to be graded. Grades and rankings come from play-by-play, charting and snap-count data, so they cannot see blocking, route running or assignments. See how the grades work.

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Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

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