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EPA per target: tight ends ranked

Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. Every target counts, caught or not, so a receiver cannot hide behind a catch total.

Why the box score misses it: Receiving yards rise with targets, not with what the targets were worth.

Best so far: Mike Gesicki (CIN), +0.99. A typical tight end is +0.23. Players need at least 12 targets to qualify, so nobody is ranked on a handful of plays.

Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days

38 of 38 tight ends

EPA/target leaders among tight ends
Player
1
Mike GesickiTE · CINElite
+0.9917−10.3grade points downWithin the noise
2
Travis KelceTE · KCElite
+0.7422+6.8grade points upWithin the noise
3
Sam LaPortaTE · DETElite
+0.7035+6.9grade points upLeaning that way
4
T.J. HockensonTE · MINElite
+0.6327+7.9grade points upWithin the noise
5
Dalton KincaidTE · BUFWell above typical
+0.6219−30.8grade points downA clear change
6
Brock BowersTE · LVWell above typical
+0.5134−4.8grade points downWithin the noise
7
Dallas GoedertTE · PHIWell above typical
+0.4516−21.6grade points downA clear change
8
George KittleTE · SFWell above typical
+0.4528−8.7grade points downLeaning that way
9
Darren WallerTE · CARWell above typical
+0.4419–
10
Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGWell above typical
+0.4047even
11
Brenton StrangeTE · JAXAbove typical
+0.3825+16.1grade points upLeaning that way
12
Hunter HenryTE · NEAbove typical
+0.3519+30.3grade points upA clear change
13
Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLEAbove typical
+0.3327−9.7grade points downLeaning that way
14
Dalton SchultzTE · HOUAbove typical
+0.3031+13.4grade points upLeaning that way
15
Darnell WashingtonTE · PITAbove typical
+0.2916−10.4grade points downWithin the noise
16
Trey McBrideTE · ARITypical
+0.2755−4.6grade points downWithin the noise
17
Pat FreiermuthTE · PITTypical
+0.2626+2.9grade points up
18
Michael MayerTE · LVTypical
+0.2425−3.3grade points downWithin the noise
19
Tucker KraftTE · GBTypical
+0.2329+12.0grade points upLeaning that way
20
Tyler WarrenTE · INDTypical
+0.2336+8.4grade points upLeaning that way
21
Greg DulcichTE · MIATypical
+0.2218even
22
Juwan JohnsonTE · NOTypical
+0.1931−6.8grade points downWithin the noise
23
Cade OttonTE · TBTypical
+0.1927+4.1grade points upWithin the noise
24
Chig OkonkwoTE · WASBelow typical
+0.1413–
25
Tyler HigbeeTE · LARBelow typical
+0.1219–
26
Foster MoreauTE · HOUBelow typical
+0.1212–
27
Evan EngramTE · DENBelow typical
+0.1017−3.4grade points downWithin the noise
28
AJ BarnerTE · SEABelow typical
+0.0419−4.0grade points downWithin the noise
29
Kyle PittsTE · ATLWell below typical
−0.0215+51.8grade points upA clear change
30
Terrance FergusonTE · LARWell below typical
−0.0312–
31
Tommy TrembleTE · CARWell below typical
−0.0415+1.3grade points up
32
Mark AndrewsTE · BALWell below typical
−0.0731−15.0grade points downA clear change
33
Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJWell below typical
−0.1321−31.0grade points downA clear change
34
Gunnar HelmTE · TENWell below typical
−0.1714–
35
Jake FergusonTE · DALAmong the weakest
−0.2621−14.4grade points downLeaning that way
36
Noah FantTE · NOAmong the weakest
−0.2913–
37
Colston LovelandTE · CHIAmong the weakest
−0.3923−7.3grade points downWithin the noise
38
Oronde Gadsden IITE · LACAmong the weakest
−0.4816−9.6grade points downLeaning that way
How to read this table
  • The number on the left is the league rank among tight ends, even when the list is filtered to one team.
  • “Against the league” draws each player on the same strip: the ends are the 10th-best and 90th-best player, the shaded stretch is the middle half, and the tick is the median. Right is always better.
  • “Lately” is the change in grade between a player's last 2 games and the games before them. The tag says whether the change is bigger than what a few plays could cause.
  • Tick “Show the box score” to put the traditional totals next to the advanced number and sort by either.

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Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

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