Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days
The read
Jake grades below average among tight ends so far, with no number far from the middle.
Lately he is playing worse. Catches over expected is −17.9 pts over the last 2 games (10 targets), against +15.9 pts before that. The change points one way, but a few plays could still explain it.
Written from his numbers, not from film. 5 games are behind the season figures.
How he stacks up
Every graded stat at a glance, against all the tight ends in the league.
Catches over expected38−0.2 pts24th of 38small sample
Share of the team's passes2711%28th of 38
Yards after catch over expected9−2.0 yds33rd of 36small sample
EPA per target8−0.2635th of 38small sample
Drop rate69.5%32nd of 34small sample
Left is the worst at his job, right is the best, and the line down the middle is average. The bubble is his percentile: 90 means better than nine in ten qualifying tight ends. Faded bars are still small samples.
How he has progressed
Where he has ranked among tight ends after each week, and every game behind it.
Season rank slipped: 34th to 8th percentile since Wk 3.
The line is his season-to-date rank among players at his position after each week, from 100 (the best) to 0 (the worst). It rises when he passes other players, not when he has one big game. Early weeks are noisier because fewer plays are behind them. The shaded weeks are the recent stretch.
EPA per target game by game
Week
Opponent
That game
targets
Season rank after
1
vs NYG
−0.11
2
–
2
vs WAS
+1.62
4
–
3
vs BAL
−0.93
5
34th pct
4
vs HOU
−0.03
4
27th pct
5
vs TB
−1.18
6
8th pct
One game is a small sample: a single stat over 4 targets can swing on a handful of plays. Shaded rows are the recent stretch.
The numbers, in context
Each one against every tight end with at least 12 targets. Right on the strip is better.
EPA per target
▼Among the weakest
−0.26
35th of 38 tight ends · bottom 11%
−0.20worse to better+0.62
Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. Every target counts, caught or not, so a receiver cannot hide behind a catch total.
The box score: Receiving yards rise with targets, not with what the targets were worth.
Does it show up in winning? Across 64 games league-wide, teams won 69% of the time when their tight end was in the best third on EPA per target, and 24% when he was in the worst third.
Catches over expected
▼Below typical
−0.2 pts
24th of 38 tight ends · bottom 40%
−6.8 ptsworse to better+12.7 pts
His catch rate compared with what each target's difficulty predicted. +4 means he catches 4 more of every 100 targets than the throws suggested.
The box score: Catch rate rewards the receiver who is only thrown easy passes.
Does it show up in winning? Across 63 games league-wide, teams won 60% of the time when their tight end was in the best third on catches over expected, and 33% when he was in the worst third.
Yards after catch over expected
▼Among the weakest
−2.0 yds
33rd of 36 tight ends · bottom 12%
−2.0 ydsworse to better+2.6 yds
The yards he gains after the catch compared with what a typical receiver gets from that spot. It separates the player who makes defenders miss from the one who is simply open.
The box score: Yards after the catch is a total, not a comparison with where he caught it.
Does it show up in winning? Across 69 games league-wide, teams won 59% of the time when their tight end was in the best third on yards after catch over expected, and 39% when he was in the worst third.
Drop rate
▼Among the weakest
9.5%lower is better
32nd of 34 tight ends · bottom 9%
9.0%worse to better0.0%
Passes charted as drops, per target. Fewer is better. Almost everyone has few, so it is shown but not counted in his overall grade.
The box score: Drops are not an official stat.
Does it show up in winning? Across 52 games league-wide, a good or bad game on drop rate from a tight end has not lined up much with his team winning (41% wins in the best third, 65% in the worst).
Share of the team's passes
▼Below typical
11%
28th of 38 tight ends · bottom 29%
10%worse to better20%
The portion of his team's pass attempts that were thrown to him, in the games he was targeted. It shows whether he is the focus of the offense.
The box score: Targets and receptions do not say how big the offense's passing game was.
Does it show up in winning? Across 172 games league-wide, teams won 56% of the time when their tight end was in the best third on share of the team's passes, and 37% when he was in the worst third.
How he plays
Tendencies: how his game differs from the tight ends around him. These are not better or worse, only different, and often say as much about the offense or defense he plays in as about him.
Average depth of target
Style
4.5 yds
Works the short game, and more so than almost any of the tight ends. A typical one is 6.3 yds.
4.6 ydslow to high8.8 yds
How far downfield his targets are, on average. It is a role, not a grade.
Deep targets
Style
0%
Rarely goes deep, and more so than almost any of the tight ends. A typical one is 6%.
0%low to high12%
The share of his targets that are 20 or more yards downfield.
Contested targets
Style
24%
Gets targeted in tight coverage, more than most tight ends. A typical one is 13%.
4%low to high27%
The share of his targets charted as contested: a defender is on him at the catch point. It says how he is used, not whether he wins.
Screen targets
Style
5%
Right around the middle of tight ends: a typical one is 5%.
0%low to high17%
The share of his targets that are screen passes, a sign his yards come from the offense's design.
Playing time
He has played in 5 of his team's 5 games with snap counts, on the field for about 72% of the team's offensive plays when he plays.
76%
NYG
60%
WAS
69%
BAL
71%
HOU
83%
TB
Each column is a game: the share of his team's offensive snaps he played. 80% means about 8 of every 10 plays. “Out” means he did not play; a question mark means snap counts are not posted yet. Shaded games are the recent stretch.
Game by game
Every game this season: how it ended for his team, how much he played, his box score, and the advanced numbers from that one game. One game is a small sample, so read the right-hand columns as a snapshot, not his level.
Jake Ferguson game by game
Game
Result
Snaps
Tgt
Rec
Yds
TD
EPA/target
CROE
YAC over exp.
Target share
Wk 1vs NYG
L 20–28
76%
2
2
6
0
−0.11
+29.5 pts
−2.3 yds
6%
Wk 2vs WAS
W 37–20
60%
4
4
43
2
+1.62
+38.2 pts
+1.2 yds
13%
Wk 3vs BAL
L 31–34
69%
5
3
23
1
−0.93
−7.3 pts
−2.4 yds
13%
Wk 4vs HOU
W 34–30
71%
4
3
11
0
−0.03
−3.3 pts
−4.4 yds
9%
Wk 5vs TB
L 16–24
83%
6
3
19
0
−1.18
−27.5 pts
−1.1 yds
14%
The box score
The traditional totals, with where each ranks among tight ends. A total rewards volume, which is why the advanced numbers above matter.
Ranks are among players at the same job who have enough plays to be graded. Grades and rankings come from play-by-play, charting and snap-count data, so they cannot see blocking, route running or assignments. See how the grades work.
Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.
