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EPA per target: wide receivers ranked

Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. Every target counts, caught or not, so a receiver cannot hide behind a catch total.

Why the box score misses it: Receiving yards rise with targets, not with what the targets were worth.

Best so far: Keon Coleman (BUF), +1.05. A typical wide receiver is +0.28. Players need at least 12 targets to qualify, so nobody is ranked on a handful of plays.

Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days

94 of 94 wide receivers

EPA/target leaders among wide receivers
Player
1
Keon ColemanWR · BUFElite
+1.0517+9.8grade points upLeaning that way
2
Mike EvansWR · SFElite
+1.0135−14.4grade points downLeaning that way
3
Tyquan ThorntonWR · KCElite
+0.9914–
4
Pat BryantWR · DENElite
+0.9513–
5
Jakobi MeyersWR · JAXElite
+0.8717−21.3grade points downA clear change
6
Zay FlowersWR · BALElite
+0.8431−25.1grade points downA clear change
7
Drake LondonWR · ATLElite
+0.7935+1.1grade points up
8
Cody WhiteWR · LVElite
+0.7615−5.6grade points downWithin the noise
9
Rashod BatemanWR · BALElite
+0.7621+10.4grade points upLeaning that way
10
Justin JeffersonWR · MINElite
+0.7524even
11
Mack HollinsWR · NEWell above typical
+0.7519–
12
CeeDee LambWR · DALWell above typical
+0.7552−12.9grade points downA clear change
13
Jaylin NoelWR · HOUWell above typical
+0.7316+10.6grade points upLeaning that way
14
Josh CameronWR · JAXWell above typical
+0.7112–
15
Jameson WilliamsWR · DETWell above typical
+0.7029+16.7grade points upA clear change
16
Chris OlaveWR · NOWell above typical
+0.7053−4.3grade points downWithin the noise
17
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAWell above typical
+0.6950−8.0grade points downLeaning that way
18
Nico CollinsWR · HOUWell above typical
+0.6824+5.4grade points upWithin the noise
19
Darius CooperWR · PHIWell above typical
+0.6813–
20
Ladd McConkeyWR · LACWell above typical
+0.6317–
21
Denzel BostonWR · CLEWell above typical
+0.6130−10.6grade points downLeaning that way
22
Parker WashingtonWR · JAXWell above typical
+0.6035+1.1grade points up
23
Tee HigginsWR · CINWell above typical
+0.5843−8.0grade points downLeaning that way
24
Kalif RaymondWR · CHIWell above typical
+0.5826−21.6grade points downA clear change
25
Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJAbove typical
+0.5214+10.0grade points upWithin the noise
26
Christian WatsonWR · GBAbove typical
+0.5140+21.2grade points upA clear change
27
Jalen CokerWR · CARAbove typical
+0.4921–
28
Dontayvion WicksWR · PHIAbove typical
+0.4827−9.2grade points downLeaning that way
29
Cooper KuppWR · SEAAbove typical
+0.4515−6.1grade points downWithin the noise
30
Terry McLaurinWR · WASAbove typical
+0.4527+3.6grade points upWithin the noise
31
Garrett WilsonWR · NYJAbove typical
+0.4442−3.3grade points downWithin the noise
32
Adonai MitchellWR · NYJAbove typical
+0.4414–
33
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CINAbove typical
+0.4337even
34
DeMario DouglasWR · NEAbove typical
+0.4322+25.5grade points upA clear change
35
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFAbove typical
+0.4219−1.7grade points down
36
Kendrick BourneWR · ARIAbove typical
+0.4022+3.1grade points upWithin the noise
37
Davante AdamsWR · LARAbove typical
+0.3938−7.9grade points downLeaning that way
38
Devaughn VeleWR · NOAbove typical
+0.3937−3.6grade points downWithin the noise
39
Kayshon BoutteWR · HOUTypical
+0.3818+4.2grade points upWithin the noise
40
Romeo DoubsWR · NETypical
+0.3623+3.7grade points upWithin the noise
How to read this table
  • The number on the left is the league rank among wide receivers, even when the list is filtered to one team.
  • “Against the league” draws each player on the same strip: the ends are the 10th-best and 90th-best player, the shaded stretch is the middle half, and the tick is the median. Right is always better.
  • “Lately” is the change in grade between a player's last 2 games and the games before them. The tag says whether the change is bigger than what a few plays could cause.
  • Tick “Show the box score” to put the traditional totals next to the advanced number and sort by either.

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Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

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