Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days
The read
Justin's best number is share of the team's passes: 21%, 23rd of 94 among wide receivers.
Not playing lately: He played in 3 of his team's first 3 games, then did not play in the last 1 game.
Written from his numbers, not from film. 4 games are behind the season figures.
How he stacks up
Every graded stat at a glance, against all the wide receivers in the league.
EPA per target90+0.7510th of 94small sample
Catches over expected89+12.9 pts11th of 94small sample
Share of the team's passes7621%23rd of 94
Yards after catch over expected22−1.9 yds65th of 83small sample
Drop rate117.6%84th of 85small sample
Left is the worst at his job, right is the best, and the line down the middle is average. The bubble is his percentile: 90 means better than nine in ten qualifying wide receivers. Faded bars are still small samples.
How he has progressed
Where he has ranked among wide receivers after each week, and every game behind it.
Season rank holding near the 90th percentile since Wk 1.
The line is his season-to-date rank among players at his position after each week, from 100 (the best) to 0 (the worst). It rises when he passes other players, not when he has one big game. Early weeks are noisier because fewer plays are behind them. The shaded weeks are the recent stretch.
EPA per target game by game
Week
Opponent
That game
targets
Season rank after
1
vs GB
+1.04
9
90th pct
2
vs CHI
+0.25
6
83rd pct
3
vs TB
+0.86
2
84th pct
5
vs NO
+0.78
7
90th pct
One game is a small sample: a single stat over 6 targets can swing on a handful of plays. Shaded rows are the recent stretch.
The numbers, in context
Each one against every wide receiver with at least 12 targets. Right on the strip is better.
EPA per target
▲Elite
+0.75
10th of 94 wide receivers · top 11%
−0.14worse to better+0.75
Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. Every target counts, caught or not, so a receiver cannot hide behind a catch total.
The box score: Receiving yards rise with targets, not with what the targets were worth.
Does it show up in winning? Across 208 games league-wide, teams won 64% of the time when their wide receiver was in the best third on EPA per target, and 36% when he was in the worst third.
Catches over expected
▲Well above typical
+12.9 pts
11th of 94 wide receivers · top 12%
−12.8 ptsworse to better+13.2 pts
His catch rate compared with what each target's difficulty predicted. +4 means he catches 4 more of every 100 targets than the throws suggested.
The box score: Catch rate rewards the receiver who is only thrown easy passes.
Does it show up in winning? Across 207 games league-wide, teams won 62% of the time when their wide receiver was in the best third on catches over expected, and 39% when he was in the worst third.
Yards after catch over expected
▼Well below typical
−1.9 yds
65th of 83 wide receivers · bottom 23%
−2.4 ydsworse to better+0.9 yds
The yards he gains after the catch compared with what a typical receiver gets from that spot. It separates the player who makes defenders miss from the one who is simply open.
The box score: Yards after the catch is a total, not a comparison with where he caught it.
Does it show up in winning? Across 176 games league-wide, a good or bad game on yards after catch over expected from a wide receiver has not lined up much with his team winning (49% wins in the best third, 58% in the worst).
Drop rate
▼Among the weakest
17.6%lower is better
84th of 85 wide receivers · bottom 3%
12.8%worse to better0.0%
Passes charted as drops, per target. Fewer is better. Almost everyone has few, so it is shown but not counted in his overall grade.
The box score: Drops are not an official stat.
Does it show up in winning? Across 174 games league-wide, a good or bad game on drop rate from a wide receiver has not lined up much with his team winning (50% wins in the best third, 48% in the worst).
Share of the team's passes
▲Well above typical
21%
23rd of 94 wide receivers · top 25%
9%worse to better25%
The portion of his team's pass attempts that were thrown to him, in the games he was targeted. It shows whether he is the focus of the offense.
The box score: Targets and receptions do not say how big the offense's passing game was.
Does it show up in winning? Across 425 games league-wide, a good or bad game on share of the team's passes from a wide receiver has not lined up much with his team winning (56% wins in the best third, 54% in the worst).
How he plays
Tendencies: how his game differs from the wide receivers around him. These are not better or worse, only different, and often say as much about the offense or defense he plays in as about him.
Average depth of target
Style
10.8 yds
Right around the middle of wide receivers: a typical one is 11.7 yds.
6.4 ydslow to high16.4 yds
How far downfield his targets are, on average. It is a role, not a grade.
Deep targets
Style
17%
Right around the middle of wide receivers: a typical one is 19%.
6%low to high30%
The share of his targets that are 20 or more yards downfield.
Contested targets
Style
18%
Right around the middle of wide receivers: a typical one is 18%.
5%low to high37%
The share of his targets charted as contested: a defender is on him at the catch point. It says how he is used, not whether he wins.
Screen targets
Style
18%
Is a screen target often, and more so than almost any of the wide receivers. A typical one is 5%.
0%low to high20%
The share of his targets that are screen passes, a sign his yards come from the offense's design.
Playing time
He has played in 3 of his team's 4 games with snap counts, on the field for about 68% of the team's offensive plays when he plays.
Not playing lately. He played in 3 of his team's first 3 games, then did not play in the last 1 game.
92%
GB
100%
CHI
12%
TB
out
MIA
?
NO
Each column is a game: the share of his team's offensive snaps he played. 80% means about 8 of every 10 plays. “Out” means he did not play; a question mark means snap counts are not posted yet. Shaded games are the recent stretch.
Game by game
Every game this season: how it ended for his team, how much he played, his box score, and the advanced numbers from that one game. One game is a small sample, so read the right-hand columns as a snapshot, not his level.
Justin Jefferson game by game
Game
Result
Snaps
Tgt
Rec
Yds
TD
EPA/target
CROE
YAC over exp.
Target share
Wk 1vs GB
W 39–22
92%
9
7
75
2
+1.04
+15.5 pts
−1.9 yds
33%
Wk 2vs CHI
W 9–3
100%
6
3
55
0
+0.25
−4.7 pts
−2.6 yds
26%
Wk 3vs TB
W 23–16
12%
2
2
32
0
+0.86
+26.2 pts
−1.5 yds
6%
Wk 5vs NO
W 23–13
–
7
6
79
1
+0.78
+21.1 pts
−1.7 yds
23%
The box score
The traditional totals, with where each ranks among wide receivers. A total rewards volume, which is why the advanced numbers above matter.
Ranks are among players at the same job who have enough plays to be graded. Grades and rankings come from play-by-play, charting and snap-count data, so they cannot see blocking, route running or assignments. See how the grades work.
Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.
