Quarterbacks passing: down, distance and the red zone

Who actually delivers on 3rd down, on 3rd and short, or inside the 20? Every quarterback in the league, ranked in the spot you pick. Every dropback that ended in a throw or a sack. Scrambles count as runs. A box score cannot say whether a player's yards came when the offense needed them, and this can.

Success rate: How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.

Grades updated Mon, Oct 12, 3:59 PM ETRechecked every few hours on game days

SituationTeamAt leastPlayer

36 of 36 quarterbacks with at least 16 dropbacks on 3rd down. The average quarterback there: 38% success rate on 1437 dropbacks in all.

quarterbacks ranked by success rate on 3rd down
#	Player	Dropbacks	Success	Yds/drop	EPA/drop	1st down	Sacked	vs. league
	League average	1437	38%	5.6	−0.11	35%	9%
1	Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI	17	59%	8.9	+0.61	59%	6%	+21 ptsbetter than the league
2	Drew LockQB · SEA	16	56%	6.9	+0.36	44%	0%	+19 ptsbetter than the league
3	Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL	27	56%	11.0	+0.78	52%	4%	+18 ptsbetter than the league
4	Brock PurdyQB · SF	37	54%	7.9	+0.42	54%	5%	+16 ptsbetter than the league
5	Josh AllenQB · BUF	33	52%	9.2	+0.46	48%	6%	+14 ptsbetter than the league
6	Carson WentzQB · MIN	19	47%	5.0	+0.11	37%	16%	+10 ptsbetter than the league
7	Joe BurrowQB · CIN	51	45%	6.7	+0.10	47%	6%	+8 ptsbetter than the league
8	Dak PrescottQB · DAL	47	45%	4.5	−0.12	43%	6%	+7 ptsbetter than the league
9	Tyson BagentQB · CHI	18	44%	6.2	+0.08	39%	0%	+7 ptsbetter than the league
10	Kirk CousinsQB · LV	51	43%	5.8	+0.18	43%	8%	+6 ptsbetter than the league
11	Tyler ShoughQB · NO	54	43%	4.6	−0.25	39%	9%	+5 ptsbetter than the league
12	Jalon DanielsQB · TB	17	41%	4.5	+0.19	41%	12%	+4 ptsbetter than the league
13	Malik WillisQB · MIA	39	41%	6.5	+0.03	38%	15%	+3 ptsbetter than the league
14	Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX	37	41%	7.3	+0.22	35%	5%	+3 ptsbetter than the league
15	Drake MayeQB · NE	42	40%	7.1	−0.03	38%	5%	+3 ptsbetter than the league
16	Jalen HurtsQB · PHI	52	40%	6.8	−0.01	37%	10%	+3 ptsbetter than the league
17	Matthew StaffordQB · LAR	38	39%	6.1	−0.29	37%	5%	+2 ptsbetter than the league
18	Jared GoffQB · DET	49	39%	4.4	−0.03	37%	8%	+1 ptsbetter than the league
19	Bryce YoungQB · CAR	39	38%	4.9	−0.03	36%	15%	+1 ptsbetter than the league
20	Geno SmithQB · NYJ	47	38%	4.7	−0.16	32%	15%	+1 ptsbetter than the league
21	Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI	59	37%	4.0	−0.30	34%	8%	−0 ptsworse than the league
22	Jameis WinstonQB · NYG	43	37%	6.0	−0.10	30%	9%	−0 ptsworse than the league
23	C.J. StroudQB · HOU	49	37%	5.8	−0.18	31%	14%	−1 ptsworse than the league
24	Kyler MurrayQB · MIN	39	36%	5.6	−0.32	41%	10%	−2 ptsworse than the league
25	Patrick MahomesQB · KC	34	35%	8.0	+0.16	35%	9%	−2 ptsworse than the league
26	Lamar JacksonQB · BAL	23	35%	6.0	+0.01	35%	9%	−3 ptsworse than the league
27	Justin HerbertQB · LAC	48	31%	5.5	−0.43	31%	13%	−6 ptsworse than the league
28	Daniel JonesQB · IND	46	30%	3.8	−0.36	28%	4%	−7 ptsworse than the league
29	Cam WardQB · TEN	43	30%	4.3	−0.34	26%	2%	−7 ptsworse than the league
30	Baker MayfieldQB · TB	32	28%	5.3	−0.59	28%	19%	−9 ptsworse than the league
31	Bo NixQB · DEN	47	28%	4.7	−0.54	23%	4%	−10 ptsworse than the league
32	Jordan LoveQB · GB	51	27%	6.0	−0.20	27%	2%	−10 ptsworse than the league
33	Jayden DanielsQB · WAS	22	27%	4.5	−0.22	27%	9%	−10 ptsworse than the league
34	Aaron RodgersQB · PIT	49	27%	3.0	−0.46	27%	18%	−11 ptsworse than the league
35	Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE	42	26%	2.9	−0.20	24%	14%	−11 ptsworse than the league
36	Sam DarnoldQB · SEA	28	25%	4.3	−0.38	25%	11%	−13 ptsworse than the league

How to read this table

The number on the left is the rank among every quarterback with enough dropbacks in the spot you picked, even when the list is filtered to one team.
The first row is the league average in that spot. A green arrow means a player is better than it, a red arrow worse, and a dot means about the same. Every arrow has a word beside it for screen readers.
Success rate. How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.
Yards per dropback. Total yards over the number of plays. It rewards the long gain but does not know what down it came on.
EPA per dropback. Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position.
First-down rate. The share of plays that ended in a first down or a touchdown: the offense moved the chains or scored.
Sack rate. The extra number that belongs to the job: runs of 10+ yards for a ball carrier, the catch rate for a receiver, and for a passer how often a dropback ends in a sack.
Small spots mean small samples. The minimum starts where the season's ranking does, and you can lower it to see everyone, at your own risk.

← All players

Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

More from the Lab

All 9 tools →