Quarterbacks running: down, distance and the red zone

Who actually delivers on 3rd down, on 3rd and short, or inside the 20? Every quarterback in the league, ranked in the spot you pick. Every carry, scrambles included. A box score cannot say whether a player's yards came when the offense needed them, and this can.

Success rate: How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.

Grades updated Mon, Oct 12, 3:59 PM ETRechecked every few hours on game days

SituationTeamAt leastPlayer

16 of 16 quarterbacks with at least 6 carries on 3rd down. The average quarterback there: 65% success rate on 170 carries in all.

quarterbacks ranked by success rate on 3rd down
#	Player	Carries	Success	Yds/carry	EPA/carry	1st down	10+ yd	vs. league
	League average	170	65%	5.3	+0.35	63%	17%
1	Josh AllenQB · BUF	6	100%	2.7	+0.76	100%	0%	+35 ptsbetter than the league
2	Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI	9	89%	4.2	+0.58	89%	11%	+24 ptsbetter than the league
3	Brock PurdyQB · SF	6	83%	1.8	+0.25	83%	0%	+19 ptsbetter than the league
4	C.J. StroudQB · HOU	6	83%	4.8	+0.79	83%	17%	+19 ptsbetter than the league
5	Joe BurrowQB · CIN	6	83%	2.5	+0.38	83%	0%	+19 ptsbetter than the league
6	Cam WardQB · TEN	8	75%	2.6	+0.42	63%	0%	+10 ptsbetter than the league
7	Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX	8	75%	6.1	+0.64	75%	25%	+10 ptsbetter than the league
8	Justin HerbertQB · LAC	9	67%	9.4	+0.27	56%	33%	+2 ptsbetter than the league
9	Bo NixQB · DEN	6	67%	2.7	+0.42	67%	0%	+2 ptsbetter than the league
10	Daniel JonesQB · IND	8	63%	2.3	+0.17	63%	0%	−2 ptsworse than the league
11	Kyler MurrayQB · MIN	7	57%	9.1	+0.82	57%	43%	−8 ptsworse than the league
12	Malik WillisQB · MIA	9	56%	10.3	+0.44	44%	33%	−9 ptsworse than the league
13	Geno SmithQB · NYJ	8	50%	2.5	−0.33	50%	0%	−15 ptsworse than the league
14	Jalon DanielsQB · TB	6	50%	6.5	+0.12	50%	17%	−15 ptsworse than the league
15	Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE	14	43%	5.5	−0.02	43%	14%	−22 ptsworse than the league
16	Jalen HurtsQB · PHI	8	38%	5.4	+0.03	50%	13%	−27 ptsworse than the league

How to read this table

The number on the left is the rank among every quarterback with enough carries in the spot you picked, even when the list is filtered to one team.
The first row is the league average in that spot. A green arrow means a player is better than it, a red arrow worse, and a dot means about the same. Every arrow has a word beside it for screen readers.
Success rate. How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.
Yards per carry. Total yards over the number of plays. It rewards the long gain but does not know what down it came on.
EPA per carry. Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position.
First-down rate. The share of plays that ended in a first down or a touchdown: the offense moved the chains or scored.
10+ yard runs. The extra number that belongs to the job: runs of 10+ yards for a ball carrier, the catch rate for a receiver, and for a passer how often a dropback ends in a sack.
Small spots mean small samples. The minimum starts where the season's ranking does, and you can lower it to see everyone, at your own risk.

← All players

Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

More from the Lab

All 9 tools →