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Tight ends receiving: down, distance and the red zone

Who actually delivers on 3rd down, on 3rd and short, or inside the 20? Every tight end in the league, ranked in the spot you pick. Every pass thrown to him, caught or not. A box score cannot say whether a player's yards came when the offense needed them, and this can.

Success rate: How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.

Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days

21 of 21 tight ends with at least 5 targets on 3rd down. The average tight end there: 46% success rate on 219 targets in all.

tight ends ranked by success rate on 3rd down
#PlayerTargetsSuccessYds/tgtEPA/tgt1st downCatch %vs. league
League average21946%6.9+0.2443%65%
1
1080%7.7+1.2680%100%+34 ptsbetter than the league
2
Travis KelceTE · KC
580%18.4+1.8280%80%+34 ptsbetter than the league
3
667%13.5+1.2467%100%+21 ptsbetter than the league
4
667%13.5+1.4150%83%+21 ptsbetter than the league
5
Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG
1362%8.6+0.7962%85%+15 ptsbetter than the league
6
Brock BowersTE · LV
1861%8.8+0.5861%61%+15 ptsbetter than the league
7
Cade OttonTE · TB
560%11.0+0.4460%80%+14 ptsbetter than the league
8
1050%11.9+0.5950%80%+4 ptsbetter than the league
9
Tyler WarrenTE · IND
650%4.7+0.2150%67%+4 ptsbetter than the league
10
Trey McBrideTE · ARI
1547%3.5−0.0640%60%+1 ptsbetter than the league
11
Mark AndrewsTE · BAL
1346%5.8+0.0546%69%+0 ptsbetter than the league
12
743%4.6+0.1343%43%−3 ptsworse than the league
13
1040%6.1+0.2240%80%−6 ptsworse than the league
14
Gunnar HelmTE · TEN
540%4.6−0.2920%80%−6 ptsworse than the league
15
933%3.1+0.1033%44%−13 ptsworse than the league
16
729%6.3−0.1629%57%−18 ptsworse than the league
17
Sam LaPortaTE · DET
729%2.7−0.4114%29%−18 ptsworse than the league
18
Darren WallerTE · CAR
520%2.6+0.0220%40%−26 ptsworse than the league
19
Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJ
520%4.4−1.340%60%−26 ptsworse than the league
20
80%2.1−1.010%25%−46 ptsworse than the league
21
Evan EngramTE · DEN
60%2.8−1.270%33%−46 ptsworse than the league
How to read this table
  • The number on the left is the rank among every tight end with enough targets in the spot you picked, even when the list is filtered to one team.
  • The first row is the league average in that spot. A green arrow means a player is better than it, a red arrow worse, and a dot means about the same. Every arrow has a word beside it for screen readers.
  • Success rate. How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.
  • Yards per target. Total yards over the number of plays. It rewards the long gain but does not know what down it came on.
  • EPA per target. Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position.
  • First-down rate. The share of plays that ended in a first down or a touchdown: the offense moved the chains or scored.
  • Catch rate. The extra number that belongs to the job: runs of 10+ yards for a ball carrier, the catch rate for a receiver, and for a passer how often a dropback ends in a sack.
  • Small spots mean small samples. The minimum starts where the season's ranking does, and you can lower it to see everyone, at your own risk.
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Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

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