Running backs receiving: down, distance and the red zone

Who actually delivers on 3rd down, on 3rd and short, or inside the 20? Every running back in the league, ranked in the spot you pick. Every pass thrown to him, caught or not. A box score cannot say whether a player's yards came when the offense needed them, and this can.

Success rate: How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.

Grades updated Mon, Oct 12, 3:59 PM ETRechecked every few hours on game days

SituationTeamAt leastPlayer

15 of 15 running backs with at least 4 targets on 3rd down. The average running back there: 40% success rate on 119 targets in all.

running backs ranked by success rate on 3rd down
#	Player	Targets	Success	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	1st down	Catch %	vs. league
	League average	119	40%	7.0	+0.11	38%	81%
1	Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR	7	57%	7.3	−0.88	57%	86%	+17 ptsbetter than the league
2	Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET	6	50%	5.3	+0.39	50%	83%	+10 ptsbetter than the league
3	Samaje PerineRB · CIN	6	50%	6.0	+0.54	50%	67%	+10 ptsbetter than the league
4	D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI	4	50%	10.3	+0.53	50%	75%	+10 ptsbetter than the league
5	Christian McCaffreyRB · SF	7	43%	5.3	+0.07	43%	57%	+3 ptsbetter than the league
6	Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC	5	40%	6.2	+0.12	40%	60%	−0 ptsworse than the league
7	Aaron JonesRB · MIN	4	25%	8.3	−0.07	25%	100%	−15 ptsworse than the league
8	Tyler AllgeierRB · ARI	4	25%	4.0	−0.24	25%	100%	−15 ptsworse than the league
9	Woody MarksRB · HOU	4	25%	6.3	+0.17	25%	100%	−15 ptsworse than the league
10	Chase BrownRB · CIN	5	20%	4.8	−0.20	20%	100%	−20 ptsworse than the league
11	George HolaniRB · SEA	5	20%	6.0	−0.28	20%	100%	−20 ptsworse than the league
12	Rachaad WhiteRB · WAS	5	20%	5.6	−0.23	20%	100%	−20 ptsworse than the league
13	Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL	6	17%	6.2	−0.62	17%	50%	−24 ptsworse than the league
14	Ashton JeantyRB · LV	7	14%	4.1	−0.40	14%	57%	−26 ptsworse than the league
15	Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE	4	0%	6.0	−0.48	0%	75%	−40 ptsworse than the league

How to read this table

The number on the left is the rank among every running back with enough targets in the spot you picked, even when the list is filtered to one team.
The first row is the league average in that spot. A green arrow means a player is better than it, a red arrow worse, and a dot means about the same. Every arrow has a word beside it for screen readers.
Success rate. How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.
Yards per target. Total yards over the number of plays. It rewards the long gain but does not know what down it came on.
EPA per target. Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position.
First-down rate. The share of plays that ended in a first down or a touchdown: the offense moved the chains or scored.
Catch rate. The extra number that belongs to the job: runs of 10+ yards for a ball carrier, the catch rate for a receiver, and for a passer how often a dropback ends in a sack.
Small spots mean small samples. The minimum starts where the season's ranking does, and you can lower it to see everyone, at your own risk.

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Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

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