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Running backs rushing: down, distance and the red zone

Who actually delivers on 3rd down, on 3rd and short, or inside the 20? Every running back in the league, ranked in the spot you pick. Every carry, scrambles included. A box score cannot say whether a player's yards came when the offense needed them, and this can.

Success rate: How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.

Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days

16 of 16 running backs with at least 6 carries on 3rd down. The average running back there: 52% success rate on 226 carries in all.

running backs ranked by success rate on 3rd down
#PlayerCarriesSuccessYds/carryEPA/carry1st down10+ ydvs. league
League average22652%3.9−0.0749%8%
1
683%3.3+0.2183%0%+31 ptsbetter than the league
2
875%3.3+0.1575%0%+23 ptsbetter than the league
3
Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT
667%2.8+0.2367%0%+14 ptsbetter than the league
4
Cam SkatteboRB · NYG
863%5.3+0.0863%13%+10 ptsbetter than the league
5
863%4.0+0.0663%13%+10 ptsbetter than the league
6
Rachaad WhiteRB · WAS
1060%4.9+0.0650%10%+8 ptsbetter than the league
7
D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI
956%4.4+0.1656%22%+3 ptsbetter than the league
8
Aaron JonesRB · MIN
650%1.3−1.3733%0%−2 ptsworse than the league
9
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET
650%2.7−0.2050%17%−2 ptsworse than the league
10
650%1.7−0.5250%0%−2 ptsworse than the league
11
944%2.8+0.0933%0%−8 ptsworse than the league
12
838%1.9−0.4438%0%−15 ptsworse than the league
13
633%3.5−0.1133%0%−19 ptsworse than the league
14
Kyle MonangaiRB · CHI
729%3.1−0.6129%14%−24 ptsworse than the league
15
617%2.0−0.4517%0%−36 ptsworse than the league
16
Derrick HenryRB · BAL
617%1.0−0.9017%0%−36 ptsworse than the league
How to read this table
  • The number on the left is the rank among every running back with enough carries in the spot you picked, even when the list is filtered to one team.
  • The first row is the league average in that spot. A green arrow means a player is better than it, a red arrow worse, and a dot means about the same. Every arrow has a word beside it for screen readers.
  • Success rate. How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.
  • Yards per carry. Total yards over the number of plays. It rewards the long gain but does not know what down it came on.
  • EPA per carry. Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position.
  • First-down rate. The share of plays that ended in a first down or a touchdown: the offense moved the chains or scored.
  • 10+ yard runs. The extra number that belongs to the job: runs of 10+ yards for a ball carrier, the catch rate for a receiver, and for a passer how often a dropback ends in a sack.
  • Small spots mean small samples. The minimum starts where the season's ranking does, and you can lower it to see everyone, at your own risk.
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Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

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