Wide receivers receiving: down, distance and the red zone

Who actually delivers on 3rd down, on 3rd and short, or inside the 20? Every wide receiver in the league, ranked in the spot you pick. Every pass thrown to him, caught or not. A box score cannot say whether a player's yards came when the offense needed them, and this can.

Success rate: How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.

Grades updated Mon, Oct 12, 3:59 PM ETRechecked every few hours on game days

SituationTeamAt leastPlayer

75 of 75 wide receivers with at least 5 targets on 3rd down. The average wide receiver there: 44% success rate on 726 targets in all.

wide receivers ranked by success rate on 3rd down
#	Player	Targets	Success	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	1st down	Catch %	vs. league
	League average	726	44%	7.4	+0.17	42%	57%
1	Keon ColemanWR · BUF	6	83%	12.3	+1.33	67%	100%	+39 ptsbetter than the league
2	Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TB	5	80%	13.0	+0.80	60%	100%	+36 ptsbetter than the league
3	Pat BryantWR · DEN	5	80%	10.8	+1.61	80%	80%	+36 ptsbetter than the league
4	Drake LondonWR · ATL	15	73%	15.8	+1.16	67%	80%	+29 ptsbetter than the league
5	Chris OlaveWR · NO	14	71%	7.0	+0.78	71%	71%	+27 ptsbetter than the league
6	Jameson WilliamsWR · DET	7	71%	11.7	+1.41	71%	71%	+27 ptsbetter than the league
7	Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR	7	71%	11.9	+1.00	71%	86%	+27 ptsbetter than the league
8	Justin JeffersonWR · MIN	10	70%	11.7	+1.35	70%	90%	+26 ptsbetter than the league
9	Kalif RaymondWR · CHI	9	67%	9.9	+0.91	67%	100%	+23 ptsbetter than the league
10	Nico CollinsWR · HOU	6	67%	9.7	+0.95	67%	100%	+23 ptsbetter than the league
11	Mike EvansWR · SF	17	65%	10.7	+1.06	65%	65%	+21 ptsbetter than the league
12	CeeDee LambWR · DAL	14	64%	6.3	+0.45	64%	79%	+20 ptsbetter than the league
13	DeMario DouglasWR · NE	8	63%	5.9	+0.62	63%	63%	+18 ptsbetter than the league
14	Kendrick BourneWR · ARI	8	63%	10.5	+0.41	50%	75%	+18 ptsbetter than the league
15	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA	18	61%	8.0	+0.47	50%	67%	+17 ptsbetter than the league
16	Josh DownsWR · IND	10	60%	9.0	+0.53	60%	90%	+16 ptsbetter than the league
17	Dohnte MeyersWR · CIN	5	60%	11.2	−0.08	60%	60%	+16 ptsbetter than the league
18	Efton Chism IIIWR · NE	5	60%	9.0	+0.07	60%	80%	+16 ptsbetter than the league
19	Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX	5	60%	10.6	+1.05	60%	80%	+16 ptsbetter than the league
20	Jaylin NoelWR · HOU	5	60%	9.4	+0.66	40%	100%	+16 ptsbetter than the league
21	Mack HollinsWR · NE	5	60%	9.4	+0.36	40%	60%	+16 ptsbetter than the league
22	Ryan FlournoyWR · DAL	5	60%	6.6	+0.04	60%	60%	+16 ptsbetter than the league
23	Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC	7	57%	8.3	+0.98	57%	57%	+13 ptsbetter than the league
24	Tyquan ThorntonWR · KC	7	57%	14.1	+1.25	57%	71%	+13 ptsbetter than the league
25	DJ MooreWR · BUF	9	56%	8.2	+0.64	56%	67%	+11 ptsbetter than the league
26	Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN	9	56%	7.0	+0.45	56%	56%	+11 ptsbetter than the league
27	Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN	9	56%	4.6	+0.20	44%	67%	+11 ptsbetter than the league
28	Malik NabersWR · NYG	11	55%	9.2	+0.10	45%	73%	+10 ptsbetter than the league
29	Tee HigginsWR · CIN	11	55%	11.5	+0.75	55%	64%	+10 ptsbetter than the league
30	Devaughn VeleWR · NO	13	54%	9.2	+0.41	38%	62%	+10 ptsbetter than the league
31	Dontayvion WicksWR · PHI	13	54%	7.9	+0.12	54%	54%	+10 ptsbetter than the league
32	DeVonta SmithWR · PHI	10	50%	8.8	−0.45	50%	60%	+6 ptsbetter than the league
33	Cooper KuppWR · SEA	6	50%	8.3	+0.60	50%	67%	+6 ptsbetter than the league
34	Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ	14	43%	5.4	−0.01	36%	71%	−1 ptsworse than the league
35	George PickensWR · DAL	15	40%	5.7	−0.15	33%	53%	−4 ptsworse than the league
36	Michael WilsonWR · ARI	15	40%	5.5	−0.28	40%	53%	−4 ptsworse than the league
37	Chris BellWR · MIA	5	40%	4.6	−0.02	40%	60%	−4 ptsworse than the league
38	Germie BernardWR · PIT	5	40%	10.6	+0.29	40%	60%	−4 ptsworse than the league
39	Isaiah WilliamsWR · NYJ	5	40%	6.8	+0.04	20%	80%	−4 ptsworse than the league
40	Jalen CokerWR · CAR	5	40%	4.0	−0.31	40%	60%	−4 ptsworse than the league
41	Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI	5	40%	4.6	+0.03	40%	40%	−4 ptsworse than the league
42	Terry McLaurinWR · WAS	5	40%	8.4	+0.52	40%	60%	−4 ptsworse than the league
43	Christian WatsonWR · GB	13	38%	11.2	+0.46	38%	62%	−6 ptsworse than the league
44	Parker WashingtonWR · JAX	13	38%	9.1	+0.37	38%	62%	−6 ptsworse than the league
45	Antonio WilliamsWR · WAS	8	38%	5.9	−0.06	38%	50%	−7 ptsworse than the league
46	Roman WilsonWR · PIT	8	38%	9.4	+0.40	38%	38%	−7 ptsworse than the league
47	Tre HarrisWR · LAC	8	38%	13.5	+0.43	38%	75%	−7 ptsworse than the league
48	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET	19	37%	5.5	+0.01	37%	58%	−7 ptsworse than the league
49	Denzel BostonWR · CLE	11	36%	5.1	+0.12	36%	36%	−8 ptsworse than the league
50	Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN	11	36%	6.8	−0.25	36%	55%	−8 ptsworse than the league
51	Rome OdunzeWR · CHI	12	33%	6.5	−0.15	33%	33%	−11 ptsworse than the league
52	Darnell MooneyWR · NYG	9	33%	3.9	−0.20	22%	33%	−11 ptsworse than the league
53	Davante AdamsWR · LAR	9	33%	9.6	+0.15	33%	33%	−11 ptsworse than the league
54	Keenan AllenWR · IND	9	33%	4.7	−0.08	22%	44%	−11 ptsworse than the league
55	Malachi FieldsWR · NYG	6	33%	10.2	+0.50	33%	50%	−11 ptsworse than the league
56	Malik WashingtonWR · MIA	6	33%	9.8	−0.31	33%	67%	−11 ptsworse than the league
57	Xavier WorthyWR · KC	6	33%	8.5	+0.05	33%	33%	−11 ptsworse than the league
58	Zay FlowersWR · BAL	6	33%	3.0	−0.38	33%	50%	−11 ptsworse than the league
59	Emeka EgbukaWR · TB	13	31%	5.1	−0.12	31%	62%	−13 ptsworse than the league
60	Stefon DiggsWR · WAS	13	31%	4.5	−0.24	31%	54%	−13 ptsworse than the league

Showing the top 60. Filter by team or name to see the rest.

How to read this table

The number on the left is the rank among every wide receiver with enough targets in the spot you picked, even when the list is filtered to one team.
The first row is the league average in that spot. A green arrow means a player is better than it, a red arrow worse, and a dot means about the same. Every arrow has a word beside it for screen readers.
Success rate. How often a play leaves the offense better off than before it: it added expected points (EPA above zero). Roughly, that is gaining about 40% of the yards to go on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and all of them on 3rd and 4th.
Yards per target. Total yards over the number of plays. It rewards the long gain but does not know what down it came on.
EPA per target. Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position.
First-down rate. The share of plays that ended in a first down or a touchdown: the offense moved the chains or scored.
Catch rate. The extra number that belongs to the job: runs of 10+ yards for a ball carrier, the catch rate for a receiver, and for a passer how often a dropback ends in a sack.
Small spots mean small samples. The minimum starts where the season's ranking does, and you can lower it to see everyone, at your own risk.

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Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

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