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MIA Miami Dolphins · WR· #21

Kevin Coleman Jr.

Age
23
Height
5'10"
Weight
179 lbs
College
Missouri; Mississippi State; Louisville; Jackson State University
Drafted
2026, No. 177 overall (MIA)
Experience
Rookie
Compare with another playerWide receivers leaderboard

33

Overall grade

93rd of 94 wide receivers

Among the weakest

well below average; 50 is average

Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days

The read

Kevin grades well below average among wide receivers so far, with no number far from the middle.

Lately he is playing better. Share of the team's passes is 21% over the last 2 games (10 targets), against 9% before that. The change points one way, but a few plays could still explain it.

Written from his numbers, not from film. 4 games are behind the season figures.

How he stacks up

Every graded stat at a glance, against all the wide receivers in the league.

  • Share of the team's passes14%56th of 94
  • Catches over expected−25.6 pts92nd of 94small sample
  • EPA per target−0.6193rd of 94small sample

Left is the worst at his job, right is the best, and the line down the middle is average. The bubble is his percentile: 90 means better than nine in ten qualifying wide receivers. Faded bars are still small samples.

How he has progressed

Where he has ranked among wide receivers after each week, and every game behind it.

WorstMiddleBestrecent12345Week 4: 0th percentileWeek 5: 1st percentile1st

Season rank holding near the 1st percentile since Wk 4.

The line is his season-to-date rank among players at his position after each week, from 100 (the best) to 0 (the worst). It rises when he passes other players, not when he has one big game. Early weeks are noisier because fewer plays are behind them. The shaded weeks are the recent stretch.

EPA per target game by game
WeekOpponentThat gametargetsSeason rank after
1vs LV−1.492–
3vs KC−0.904–
4vs MIN−0.8040th pct
5vs CIN+0.0161st pct

One game is a small sample: a single stat over 4 targets can swing on a handful of plays. Shaded rows are the recent stretch.

The numbers, in context

Each one against every wide receiver with at least 12 targets. Right on the strip is better.

EPA per target

Among the weakest

−0.61

93rd of 94 wide receivers · bottom 3%

Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. Every target counts, caught or not, so a receiver cannot hide behind a catch total.

The box score: Receiving yards rise with targets, not with what the targets were worth.

Does it show up in winning? Across 208 games league-wide, teams won 64% of the time when their wide receiver was in the best third on EPA per target, and 36% when he was in the worst third.

Last 2 games: −0.32 (10) vs −1.09 before+14.9grade points upLeaning that way

Small sample: could move a lot · 16 targets · true level likely −1.25 to +0.03

Catches over expected

Among the weakest

−25.6 pts

92nd of 94 wide receivers · bottom 4%

His catch rate compared with what each target's difficulty predicted. +4 means he catches 4 more of every 100 targets than the throws suggested.

The box score: Catch rate rewards the receiver who is only thrown easy passes.

Does it show up in winning? Across 207 games league-wide, teams won 62% of the time when their wide receiver was in the best third on catches over expected, and 39% when he was in the worst third.

Last 2 games: −17.2 pts (10) vs −39.7 pts before+15.6grade points upLeaning that way

Small sample: could move a lot · 16 targets · true level likely −43.7 pts to −7.5 pts

Share of the team's passes

Typical

14%

56th of 94 wide receivers · bottom 42%

The portion of his team's pass attempts that were thrown to him, in the games he was targeted. It shows whether he is the focus of the offense.

The box score: Targets and receptions do not say how big the offense's passing game was.

Does it show up in winning? Across 425 games league-wide, a good or bad game on share of the team's passes from a wide receiver has not lined up much with his team winning (56% wins in the best third, 54% in the worst).

Last 2 games: 21% (10) vs 9% before+19.0grade points upA clear change

Sample still growing · 16 targets · true level likely 8% to 19%

How he plays

Tendencies: how his game differs from the wide receivers around him. These are not better or worse, only different, and often say as much about the offense or defense he plays in as about him.

Average depth of target

Style

14.2 yds

Works downfield, more than most wide receivers. A typical one is 11.7 yds.

How far downfield his targets are, on average. It is a role, not a grade.

Small sample: could move a lot · 16 targets

Deep targets

Style

25%

Goes deep often, more than most wide receivers. A typical one is 19%.

The share of his targets that are 20 or more yards downfield.

Small sample: could move a lot · 16 targets

Playing time

He has played in 4 of his team's 4 games with snap counts, on the field for about 47% of the team's offensive plays when he plays.

Each column is a game: the share of his team's offensive snaps he played. 80% means about 8 of every 10 plays. “Out” means he did not play; a question mark means snap counts are not posted yet. Shaded games are the recent stretch.

Game by game

Every game this season: how it ended for his team, how much he played, his box score, and the advanced numbers from that one game. One game is a small sample, so read the right-hand columns as a snapshot, not his level.

Kevin Coleman Jr. game by game
GameResultSnapsTgtRecYdsTDEPA/targetCROETarget share
Wk 1 vs LVL 13–2729%2000−1.49−54.4 pts6%
Wk 3 vs KCL 10–2462%4130−0.90−32.3 pts11%
Wk 4 vs MINL 10–1551%4130−0.80−29.9 pts22%
Wk 5 vs CINL 24–31–63301+0.01−8.8 pts21%

The box score

The traditional totals, with where each ranks among wide receivers. A total rewards volume, which is why the advanced numbers above matter.

Kevin Coleman Jr. box score totals
StatTotalRank
Targets1677th of 94
Receptions591st of 94
Receiving yards3693rd of 94
Receiving touchdowns131st of 94

Players with a similar profile

The wide receivers whose grades are closest to his across the same stats. Similar means similar numbers, not the same style of play.

Ranks are among players at the same job who have enough plays to be graded. Grades and rankings come from play-by-play, charting and snap-count data, so they cannot see blocking, route running or assignments. See how the grades work.

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Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

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