The Lab · 2026 season

Week 5: Raiders 17, Patriots 45

Road game at the Patriots · October 11, 2026 · Outdoors

Lowest point
0%
Q4 6:06, chance to win
Biggest swing
+11 pts
Fumble lost, Q2 04:33
Lead changes
0
counting scoring plays
Biggest deficit
28 pts
the Raiders faced

Replay

How the game was won

Press play, or drag across the chart. Click any marker to jump straight to that play.

Raiders
17
FINAL
Patriots
45
Raiders win probability
0%
100%7550250%Q1Q2Q3Q4RAIDERS AHEADPATRIOTS AHEADTDTDTDTOTDTDFGTDTOFGTDTD
Touchdown · Q4 06:11

D.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

0 pts
0% to 0%

Key plays

What the symbols mean

  • Touchdown
  • Field goal
  • Safety
  • Two-point conversion
  • Turnover
  • Big swing

Circles are scores, diamonds are turnovers, outlined circles are big swings that were neither. A marker wears the color of the team the play helped: Raiders or Patriots.

Clip

The game in 15 seconds

The win probability, drawn as the game was played. Made for sharing, in the size each app likes.

Top plays

The five plays that decided it

Ranked by how far each snap moved the Raiders’ chance to win, whoever it helped. See the biggest plays of the season.

  1. 1

    Fumble

    +11 pts for the Raiders

    Q2 · 4:33

    C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (A.Butler). FUMBLES (A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE, Illegal Shift, declined.

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  2. 2

    7-yard pass

    −7 pts for the Patriots

    Q1 · 2:34

    D.Maye pass short middle to H.Henry to LV 1 for 7 yards (T.Stukes).

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  3. 3

    Passing TD

    −7 pts for the Patriots

    Q1 · 11:30

    D.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

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  4. 4

    Incomplete pass

    −6 pts for the Patriots

    Q1 · 4:00

    D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to R.Doubs. PENALTY on LV-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play.

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  5. 5

    6-yard pass

    −6 pts for the Patriots

    Q1 · 4:35

    D.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (T.Johnson).

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Fumble, Q2 · 4:33: +11 pts of win probability for the Raiders.
Play of the gameOpen imageSave

Drive replays

Every drive, one snap at a time

Pick a drive and press play. Passes and kicks arc through the air, runs slide along the ground. Ball positions come from the official play log.

Offense
Quarter
1st & 10at own 35
Raiders drive 1 · Q1 14:54
Drive mapOffense goes left to right. Dashed frame is the view below.
PATRIOTSRAIDERSPATRIOTSPATRIOTSRAIDERSPATRIOTS30304040505040403030202010 TO GO1ST1STLOSLOSUNDER CENTER · 42% PASSLEFTMIDDLERIGHT
  • Line of scrimmage
  • First-down marker
  • Pass or kick
  • Run
  • Loss or penalty
  • Where the play ended
  • Incomplete

The offense moves up the screen, so left and right are the offense’s left and right. Each play is drawn toward the side it went. The official log records left, middle or right (and the gap on runs), not exact positions, so the lane is a good guide and the exact spot is not. Tap a ring to jump to that play.

R run · P pass · K kick · X other. The bars show each play’s expected points added: up helped the offense, down hurt it. Tap a play or drag to move the ball through the drive.

Play 1 of 4

Raiders start at own 35.

Drive summary

Plays
41:04
Yards
41.0 per play
Starts at
own 35
First downs
0
Rushing
1 for 4yds
Passing
0/2 for 0yds
3rd down
0 of 1
4th down
–
Drive EPA
−2.36expected pts
Success rate
33%1 of 3
Win probability
−5.8%
Explosive plays
010+ run, 20+ pass

Play by play

Type
Down

Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Win probability is the nflverse model’s. Key plays, charts and replays by Raiders Rundown.