The Lab · 2026 season
Week 4: Raiders 27, Chiefs 30
Home game against the Chiefs · October 4, 2026 · Indoors
- Lowest point
- 3%
- Q4 3:02, chance to win
- Biggest swing
- −35 pts
- Big swing, Q4 03:35
- Lead changes
- 3
- counting scoring plays
- Biggest deficit
- 10 pts
- the Raiders faced
Replay
How the game was won
Press play, or drag across the chart. Click any marker to jump straight to that play.
K.Cousins pass short left intended for M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by X.Nwankpa (G.Karlaftis) [G.Karlaftis] at KC 36. X.Nwankpa to KC 39 for 3 yards (C.White). Penalty on LV-A.Jeanty, Illegal Shift, declined.
Key plays
What the symbols mean
- Touchdown
- Field goal
- Safety
- Two-point conversion
- Turnover
- Big swing
Circles are scores, diamonds are turnovers, outlined circles are big swings that were neither. A marker wears the color of the team the play helped: Raiders or Chiefs.
Clip
The game in 13 seconds
The win probability, drawn as the game was played. Made for sharing, in the size each app likes.
Save it for your post
- Landscape 16:9X, YouTube, link posts187 KB
- Vertical 9:16Reels, TikTok, Shorts, Stories214 KB
- Square 1:1Instagram and Facebook feeds151 KB
- GIF 16:9Quick share, small file264 KB
Free to share. Please keep the credit line in the video.
Top plays
The five plays that decided it
Ranked by how far each snap moved the Raiders’ chance to win, whoever it helped. See the biggest plays of the season.
- 1
55-yard pass
−35 pts for the Chiefs
Q4 · 3:35
P.Mahomes pass deep left to T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (T.Stukes). KC-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.
Before 67%After 32% - 2
76-yard run
−22 pts for the Chiefs
Q3 · 0:30
K.Walker right guard pushed ob at LV 8 for 76 yards (T.Johnson).
Before 66%After 43% - 3
21-yard pass
+21 pts for the Raiders
Q4 · 13:25
K.Cousins pass short right to B.Bowers to KC 25 for 21 yards (M.Delane).
Before 33%After 54% - 4
Interception
−12 pts for the Chiefs
Q4 · 0:10
K.Cousins pass short left intended for M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by X.Nwankpa (G.Karlaftis) [G.Karlaftis] at KC 36. X.Nwankpa to KC 39 for 3 yards (C.White). Penalty on LV-A.Jeanty, Illegal Shift, declined.
Before 17%After 5% - 5
12-yard pass
+11 pts for the Raiders
Q4 · 0:37
K.Cousins pass short right to A.Jeanty ran ob at LV 28 for 12 yards (N.Williams; L.Sneed).
Before 9%After 20%
Fourth-down report
Did the Raiders make the right calls on fourth down?
Every time the Raiders had the ball on fourth down this game, the call is compared with what happened after similar ones from 2019 to last season. 8 of 8 fourth downs were the best call or a toss-up.
- Raiders' 4th downs
- 8
- 3 went for it, 2 punts, 3 field goals
- Compared with history
- 8 of 8
- had enough similar plays to judge
- Best call or toss-up
- 8 of 8
- of the calls we could judge
- Left on the table
- 0 pts
- of win probability
4th & 14 · own 42Q1 0:08
Best call
Punted
This was the best option the history supports.
- Go for it
- 48%after, 107 similar
- Punt (chosen)
- 49%after, 1,678 similar
4th & 1 · own 39Q2 9:21
Best call
Went for it, converted
This was the best option the history supports.
- Go for it (chosen)
- 51%after, 235 similar
- Punt
- 48%after, 643 similar
4th & 9 · opp 13Q2 3:23
Best call
Field goal, made
This was the best option the history supports.
- Go for it
- 56%after, 116 similar
- Field goal (chosen)
- 57%after, 1,031 similar
4th & 2 · opp 18Q3 11:37
Best call
Went for it, failed
This was the best option the history supports.
- Go for it (chosen)
- 68%after, 215 similar
- Field goal
- 66%after, 371 similar
4th & 11 · own 35Q3 4:49
Best call
Punted
This was the best option the history supports.
- Go for it
- 58%after, 37 similar
- Punt (chosen)
- 59%after, 958 similar
4th & 11 · opp 26Q4 11:17
Best call
Field goal, made
This was the best option the history supports.
- Field goal (chosen)
- 39%after, 364 similar
- Punt
- 37%after, 76 similar
4th & 2 · opp 30Q4 4:58
Toss-up
Field goal, made
Similar teams did about 0.4 pts better going for it. That is inside the noise, so call it a toss-up.
- Go for it
- 55%after, 126 similar
- Field goal (chosen)
- 55%after, 102 similar
4th & 10 · own 16Q4 0:37
Best call
Went for it, converted
This was the best option the history supports.
- Go for it (chosen)
- 14%after, 46 similar
How to read this. These are estimates. They compare each choice with what happened after similar fourth downs in 2019 to last season, weighted by distance, field position, score and time left. Teams mostly go for it when things look good, so going for it can look a little better than it really is. Spots with too little history behind them are not graded, and a gap of a point or two is a coin flip.
Drive replays
Every drive, one snap at a time
Pick a drive and press play. Passes and kicks arc through the air, runs slide along the ground. Ball positions come from the official play log.
- Line of scrimmage
- First-down marker
- Pass or kick
- Run
- Loss or penalty
- Where the play ended
- Incomplete
The offense moves up the screen, so left and right are the offense’s left and right. Each play is drawn toward the side it went. The official log records left, middle or right (and the gap on runs), not exact positions, so the lane is a good guide and the exact spot is not. Tap a ring to jump to that play.
R run · P pass · K kick · X other. The bars show each play’s expected points added: up helped the offense, down hurt it. Tap a play or drag to move the ball through the drive.
Raiders start at 50.
Drive summary
- Plays
- 42:16
- Yards
- 5012.5 per play
- Starts at
- 50
- First downs
- 2
- Rushing
- 1 for 4yds
- Passing
- 3/3 for 46yds
- 3rd down
- –
- 4th down
- –
- Drive EPA
- +3.81expected pts
- Success rate
- 100%4 of 4
- Win probability
- +10.3%
- Explosive plays
- 110+ run, 20+ pass