The Lab · 2026 season
The fourth-down report card
Go for it, punt or kick? Every Raiders fourth down is compared with what happened after similar ones from 2019 to last season.
- Raiders' 4th downs
- 28
- 24 had enough similar plays to judge
- Best call or toss-up
- 20 of 24
- of the calls we could judge
- Went for it
- 4 of 6
- converted
- Left on the table
- 11 pts
- of win probability, all games added up
The calls worth a second look
4th & 8 · opp 46Week 2 vs Chargers
Questionable
Punted
Similar teams did about 3.6 pts better kicking a field goal (66% vs 62% win probability afterwards).
4th & 5 · own 42Week 3 vs Saints
Questionable
Punted
Similar teams did about 3.5 pts better going for it (62% vs 59% win probability afterwards).
4th & 2 · opp 29Week 1 vs Dolphins
Questionable
Field goal, made
Similar teams did about 1.8 pts better going for it (76% vs 74% win probability afterwards).
4th & 2 · own 39Week 1 vs Dolphins
Questionable
Punted
Similar teams did about 1.8 pts better going for it (94% vs 92% win probability afterwards).
Game by game
- Week 1: vs the Dolphins3.5 pts of win probability left on the table
- Week 2: at the Chargers3.6 pts of win probability left on the table
- Week 3: at the Saints3.5 pts of win probability left on the table
- Week 4: vs the Chiefs8 of 8 fourth downs were the best call or a toss-up
These are estimates. They compare each choice with what happened after similar fourth downs in 2019 to last season, weighted by distance, field position, score and time left. Teams mostly go for it when things look good, so going for it can look a little better than it really is. Spots with too little history behind them are not graded, and a gap of a point or two is a coin flip.