Home game against the Dolphins · September 13, 2026 · Indoors
Lowest pointThe model's estimate of how often a team wins from this exact spot: score, time left, down, distance and field position. It is not a prediction, it is how surprised to be.
52%
Q1 11:33, chance to win
Biggest swingHow many percentage points this play added to the Raiders' chance to win, or took away. +20 means it moved from 40% to 60%.
+7 pts
Touchdown, Q1 01:38
Lead changes
0
counting scoring plays
Biggest lead
14 pts
the Raiders held
Replay
How the game was won
Press play, or drag across the chart. Click any marker to jump straight to that play.
Raiders
27
FINAL
Dolphins
13
Raiders win probabilityThe model's estimate of how often a team wins from this exact spot: score, time left, down, distance and field position. It is not a prediction, it is how surprised to be.
100%
Fumble lost · Q4 02:00
M.Willis pass deep middle to M.Washington to MIA 36 for 26 yards (J.Chinn). FUMBLES (J.Chinn), RECOVERED by LV-Q.Walker at MIA 34.
0 ptsHow many percentage points this play added to the Raiders' chance to win, or took away. +20 means it moved from 40% to 60%.
100% to 100%
Key plays
What the symbols mean
TouchdownTouchdown. Six points. The extra point or two-point try that follows is counted on its own.
Field goalField goal. A kick through the uprights, worth three points.
SafetySafety. Two points and the ball, scored when the offense is tackled in its own end zone.
Two-point conversionTwo-point conversion. A successful try from the 2-yard line after a touchdown, worth two points.
TurnoverTurnover. The offense lost the ball: an interception, or a fumble the other team recovered.
Big swingBig swing. Not a score or a turnover, but a play that moved win probability a lot, like a long gain, a fourth-down stop or a key penalty.
Circles are scores, diamonds are turnovers, outlined circles are big swings that were neither. A marker wears the color of the team the play helped: Raiders or Dolphins.
Drive replays
Every drive, one snap at a time
Pick a drive and press play. Passes and kicks arc through the air, runs slide along the ground. Ball positions come from the official play log.
Offense
Quarter
1st & 10at own 7
Raiders drive 2 · Q1 10:31
Drive mapOffense goes left to right. Dashed frame is the view below.
Line of scrimmage
First-down marker
Pass or kick
Run
Loss or penalty
Where the play ended
Incomplete
The offense moves up the screen, so left and right are the offense’s left and right. Each play is drawn toward the side it went. The official log records left, middle or right (and the gap on runs), not exact positions, so the lane is a good guide and the exact spot is not. Tap a ring to jump to that play.
RRRPPPPPPRRPRRPP
R run · P pass · K kick · X other. The bars show each play’s expected points added: up helped the offense, down hurt it. Tap a play or drag to move the ball through the drive.
