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NO New Orleans Saints · K· #10

Daniel Carlson

Age
31
Height
6'5"
Weight
222 lbs
College
Auburn
Drafted
2018, No. 167 overall (MIN)
Experience
9th NFL season
Compare with another playerKickers leaderboard

59

Overall grade

4th of 31 kickers

Elite

above average; 50 is average

Grades updated Rechecked every few hours on game days

The read

Daniel grades above average among kickers so far, with no number far from the middle.

Lately he is playing worse. EPA per kickoff is −0.01 over the last 2 games (8 kickoffs), against +0.37 before that. The change points one way, but a few plays could still explain it.

Written from his numbers, not from film. 5 games are behind the season figures.

How he stacks up

Every graded stat at a glance, against all the kickers in the league.

  • EPA per kickoff+0.231st of 33small sample
  • Field goals over expected−10.9 pts21st of 31small sample
  • Extra point percentage85%26th of 29small sample
  • Field goal percentage71%28th of 31small sample

Left is the worst at his job, right is the best, and the line down the middle is average. The bubble is his percentile: 90 means better than nine in ten qualifying kickers. Faded bars are still small samples.

How he has progressed

Where he has ranked among kickers after each week, and every game behind it.

WorstMiddleBestrecent12345Week 2: 63rd percentileWeek 4: 30th percentile30th

Season rank slipped: 63rd to 30th percentile since Wk 2.

The line is his season-to-date rank among players at his position after each week, from 100 (the best) to 0 (the worst). It rises when he passes other players, not when he has one big game. Early weeks are noisier because fewer plays are behind them. The shaded weeks are the recent stretch.

Field goals over expected game by game
WeekOpponentThat gametriesSeason rank after
1vs DET−23.0 pts2–
2vs BAL+14.0 pts363rd pct
4vs ATL−36.0 pts230th pct

One game is a small sample: a single stat over 2 tries can swing on a handful of plays. Shaded rows are the recent stretch.

The numbers, in context

Each one against every kicker with at least 6 field goal tries. Right on the strip is better.

Field goals over expected

Below typical

−10.9 pts

21st of 31 kickers · bottom 36%

His field goal percentage compared with what the distances he kicked from predict. +10 means he makes 10 more of every 100 kicks than an average kicker from those same spots.

The box score: Field goal percentage rewards the kicker whose coach only sends him out from 30 yards.

Does it show up in winning? Across 52 games league-wide, teams won 59% of the time when their kicker was in the best third on field goals over expected, and 44% when he was in the worst third.

Last 2 games: −36.0 pts (2) vs −0.8 pts before

Small sample: could move a lot · 7 tries · true level likely −31.4 pts to +9.6 pts

Field goal percentage

Among the weakest

71%

28th of 31 kickers · bottom 13%

Field goals made over tries. It is the box score number, shown for comparison; it depends heavily on where he is asked to kick from.

The box score: This is the box score number.

Does it show up in winning? Across 52 games league-wide, teams won 59% of the time when their kicker was in the best third on field goal percentage, and 44% when he was in the worst third.

Last 2 games: 50% (2) vs 80% before

Small sample: could move a lot · 7 tries · true level likely 42% to 101%

Extra point percentage

Well below typical

85%

26th of 29 kickers · bottom 14%

Extra points made over tries. Nearly everyone makes nearly all of them, so it is shown but not counted in his overall grade.

The box score: This is the box score number.

Does it show up in winning? Across 30 games league-wide, teams won 100% of the time when their kicker was in the best third on extra point percentage, and 80% when he was in the worst third.

Last 2 games: 80% (5) vs 88% beforeevenWithin the noise

Small sample: could move a lot · 13 tries · true level likely 66% to 103%

EPA per kickoff

Elite

+0.23

1st of 33 kickers · top 4%

Expected points added: how many points the play added to (or took from) the offense's scoring chances, given the down, the distance and the field position. Measured from the kicking team's side, so a higher number means his kickoffs leave the opponent with a worse start.

The box score: Touchbacks are counted, but not what the kick was worth.

Does it show up in winning? Across 79 games league-wide, a good or bad game on EPA per kickoff from a kicker has not lined up much with his team winning (64% wins in the best third, 65% in the worst).

Last 2 games: −0.01 (8) vs +0.37 before−20.0grade points downLeaning that way

Small sample: could move a lot · 21 kickoffs · true level likely −0.03 to +0.48

How he plays

Tendencies: how his game differs from the kickers around him. These are not better or worse, only different, and often say as much about the offense or defense he plays in as about him.

Average try distance

Style

41.4 yds

Right around the middle of kickers: a typical one is 41.4 yds.

The average length of his field goal tries. It shows how far his coaches trust him, which is a role, not a grade.

Small sample: could move a lot · 7 tries

Tries from 50+

Style

43%

Is sent out from 50+ often, more than most kickers. A typical one is 25%.

The share of his field goal tries from 50 yards or more.

Small sample: could move a lot · 7 tries

Kickoff touchbacks

Style

29%

Kicks it out of the end zone, and more so than almost any of the kickers. A typical one is 15%.

The share of his kickoffs that are touchbacks.

Small sample: could move a lot · 21 kickoffs

Game by game

Every game this season: how it ended for his team, how much he played, his box score, and the advanced numbers from that one game. One game is a small sample, so read the right-hand columns as a snapshot, not his level.

Daniel Carlson game by game
GameResultFGAFGMXPAXPMFG over exp.Kickoff EPA
Wk 1 vs DETL 30–312133−23.0 pts+0.08
Wk 2 vs BALW 24–173311+14.0 pts−0.00
Wk 3 vs LVL 27–350043–+1.47
Wk 4 vs ATLL 24–452133−36.0 pts+0.15
Wk 5 vs MINL 13–230021–−0.27

The box score

The traditional totals, with where each ranks among kickers. A total rewards volume, which is why the advanced numbers above matter.

Daniel Carlson box score totals
StatTotalRank
Field goal tries727th of 31
Field goals made528th of 31
Extra point tries137th of 31
Extra points made1113th of 31

Players with a similar profile

The kickers whose grades are closest to his across the same stats. Similar means similar numbers, not the same style of play.

Ranks are among players at the same job who have enough plays to be graded. Grades and rankings come from play-by-play, charting and snap-count data, so they cannot see blocking, route running or assignments. See how the grades work.

← All players

Data: nflverse play-by-play, CC BY 4.0. Also FTN charting, Pro Football Reference advanced stats, snap counts and injury reports, all through nflverse. Calculations and charts by Raiders Rundown.

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