Week 5 Preview: Raiders vs. Patriots - The Honeymoon is Over

The undefeated start is over. The harder test might be what comes next. After falling to Kansas City, Las Vegas heads to Foxborough with a chance to prove the first month wasn't an accident.

Reality Checks Come for Everyone

Well, that was fun while it lasted.

Three weeks of undefeated football. Three weeks of watching a Raiders team nobody had particularly high expectations for find new ways to win. Three weeks of turnovers, defensive stands and an offense that looked considerably more competent than anything we've grown accustomed to in recent years.

Then Kansas City showed up for 19 seconds.

The Chiefs left Allegiant Stadium with a 30-27 win, and the Raiders were handed their first loss of the Klint Kubiak era. I'm not discouraged. Frustrated? Absolutely. Las Vegas gained 437 yards, held the ball for nearly 36 minutes and led 19-17 with less than five minutes to play. This team was a handful of fixable mistakes away from handing Kansas City its first loss of the season.

What bothers me isn't that the Raiders lost to the Chiefs. It's how familiar some of the problems looked.

The run game struggled again: 72 yards on 26 carries, while Kansas City ran for 189. The Raiders gave away the ball twice, one on a fumbled kickoff and one on a desperation interception with 10 seconds left, and Kansas City gave it away zero times. And a defense that had built a reputation on making quarterbacks miserable gave up far too much on the ground.

None of those weaknesses appeared overnight. The Chiefs simply made the Raiders pay for them.

Now comes New England, a team that has spent the opening month wrestling with its own inconsistencies. After watching the Patriots' opener against Seattle, studying their recent games and going through the numbers in the Raiders Rundown Lab, I'm convinced this is an extremely winnable game.

But the Raiders have work to do. Kansas City tested this team's ceiling. New England is going to test its maturity.

Don't Let the Patriots' Record Fool You

The Patriots are 2-2, and they've already shown why they're dangerous.

Last Sunday New England went into Buffalo and beat the previously unbeaten Bills, 29-26. Drake Maye threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns, ran for another 54, and shook off two turnovers along the way. It was the kind of performance that reminded everyone why this team reached the Super Bowl last season. (Seattle beat them there, 29-13. Seattle also beat them in Week 1 of this season. More on that in a second.)

But Buffalo wasn't the version of Maye that has shown up every week.

Against Seattle in the opener, the Patriots built a 10-0 lead, then watched it disappear in the fourth quarter. Seattle scored 13 unanswered points to win 13-10. Maye finished with three interceptions, all in that final quarter, including a desperate last throw off his back foot while he tried to rescue the game.

That play caught my attention. Seattle brought pressure, Maye tried to escape, and instead of accepting the situation he tried to manufacture something that wasn't there. The result was another turnover.

It wasn't an isolated problem, either. Against Seattle, Maye kept showing how dangerous he is outside the pocket, running seven times for 47 yards, and how quickly things can fall apart when pressure pushes him into uncomfortable decisions.

That's an important distinction. Maye is dangerous when he chooses to run. He's far more vulnerable when the defense makes that choice for him.

Through four weeks, New England is throwing interceptions on 5.3% of its pass attempts, the second-highest rate in football, according to the Lab. Seattle drives that number, and Buffalo showed Maye can bounce back. But the volatility is worth examining.

The Raiders don't need an elaborate scheme. They need to make Maye uncomfortable without letting him escape.

Easier said than done.

The Biggest Mismatch Isn't Particularly Close

I spent some time going through the Raiders-Patriots page in the Lab, and one pairing jumped off the screen.

Raiders pass rush: 2nd in the NFL. Patriots pass protection: 25th.

Through four games, Las Vegas has pressured 38% of opposing dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league. New England has allowed pressure on 25% of its dropbacks. That's a significant advantage on paper, and it may be the most important matchup of Sunday's game.

In fact, the Lab sees the whole game tilting the Raiders' way on paper. The Raiders' defense holds an edge in all four of its pairings against New England's offense. Three of them are big edges: the pass rush against pass protection, the pass coverage against Maye and the passing game, and the coverage against the Patriots' receivers. The Raiders' own offense gets no edge in any of its four pairings, which tells you where the work is. More on that in a minute.

Maxx Crosby has 18 pressures through four weeks. Kwity Paye has seven and Malcolm Koonce six. And here's the part I like: the Raiders aren't getting that pressure by sending the house. Las Vegas blitzes on about 25% of defensive plays, a rate that 22 teams are higher than. That matters against a quarterback like Maye. When four defenders can collapse the pocket, you don't have to give up anything on the back end. You can ask Maye to find an answer in a crowded secondary while the pocket closes on him.

Seattle showed what that can do. Its pressure forced mistakes that completely changed the outcome of Week 1. The Raiders have the personnel to create the same problems.

But there's a catch. Maye ran for 47 yards against Seattle and 54 against Buffalo. You can't just chase him blindly. Crosby and the rest of the front have to hold their rush lanes. Pressure only has value if Maye doesn't turn third-and-long into a first down with his legs.

Contain him. Collapse the pocket. Make him throw into coverage.

And when the ball does go up, I like the Raiders' chances. Hezekiah Masses has allowed a 42.9 passer rating on 20 targets this season, and the Lab grades the Raiders' pass coverage as fourth-best in the league. This should be a favorable matchup for Rob Leonard's defense.

The Most Frustrating Matchup in Football Might Be the Raiders' Biggest Opportunity

Let's talk about the run game. Or, more accurately, whatever the Raiders have been doing when they try to run.

Against Kansas City, Las Vegas ran 26 times for 72 yards. The Chiefs ran for 189. That isn't sustainable, and what makes it more frustrating is that the Raiders have invested heavily in an offense that should be capable of a lot more.

Ashton Jeanty is too talented to spend every Sunday fighting through defenders before he can get started. And the numbers suggest that's exactly what's happening.

The Raiders average 1.4 rushing yards before contact. That's last in the NFL. And 27% of their runs are stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. Also last.

Here's the number I keep coming back to, though: once the Raiders' backs are hit, they're fine. Las Vegas ranks 15th in the league in yards after contact. The run game's problem is mostly the part that happens before the ball carrier gets there.

To be fair, Jeanty's own numbers aren't pretty either. He's averaging negative 0.28 points per carry in the Lab, the lowest mark among the Raiders' backs. There are legitimate questions about his vision and decision-making. But it's hard to judge a running back when defenders are meeting him in the backfield on more than a quarter of his carries.

And here's where the matchup gets interesting. New England's run defense has been nearly as bad.

The Patriots rank 28th in the Lab's run-defense grade and 30th in points allowed per rush. Only 10% of opposing runs are stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, the lowest rate in football. That's remarkable, because New England is stacking the box on 16% of its snaps, fourth most in the league. They load up and still don't stop anybody.

Read that again. The Raiders have the league's highest rate of runs stuffed at or behind the line. The Patriots have the league's lowest rate of stuffing them.

Something has to give on Sunday.

I want to be careful here: the Lab calls this pairing even, not a Raiders edge. A run game ranked 24th meeting a run defense ranked 28th is two weak units colliding. This isn't an obvious win. It's an opportunity.

If there's ever a time for Kubiak to get this thing going, this is it. Jackson Powers-Johnson returning to practice this week is encouraging, although his status needs to be watched. And I'd like to see Kubiak get creative. Use motion. Create better angles. Get Jeanty into space instead of running him into congested interior gaps.

The Raiders use pre-snap motion on 66% of their plays, sixth most in the league. The tools to manipulate a defense are already there. Now use them to create some running room.

I'm not expecting Jeanty to suddenly look like the league's leading rusher. But asking this offense to produce a respectable ground game against the Lab's 28th-ranked run defense isn't unreasonable.

If it can't happen Sunday, when exactly is it supposed to happen?

Don't Sleep on New England's Pressure Packages

The Patriots have defensive advantages of their own, and one was obvious watching the Seattle game.

Mike Vrabel isn't afraid to send pressure. I noticed New England bringing six defenders on one play and getting home on Sam Darnold early in the game. That wasn't an unusual wrinkle. According to the Lab, the Patriots blitz on 37% of defensive plays, eighth most in the league, and send an average of 4.5 pass rushers, sixth most.

There's a reason for that. The Patriots' pass rush grades out 16th, so they need the extra bodies to get home. Their pressure rate is 17th and their sack rate 19th. It's an average rush that gets help from the blitz.

That matters against Kirk Cousins. He can pick apart an aggressive defense when he recognizes the pressure before the snap and gets the ball out on time. But nobody confuses him with an especially mobile quarterback. If New England makes him hold the football, the Raiders could have problems.

Interestingly, the Raiders have been better at preventing sacks than at preventing pressure. They've allowed sacks on just 3.3% of dropbacks, third-best in the league, despite allowing pressure on 26%, fifth-worst. Cousins gets the ball out and avoids negative plays, but the offensive line isn't necessarily giving him clean pockets.

Here's something that doesn't get said enough: the Lab grades the Raiders' offensive line 29th and New England's 30th. Two of the league's worst lines are meeting in Foxborough. Whoever protects their quarterback slightly better and keeps a cleaner pocket will have a big advantage. The Raiders have help in Cousins' quick release. Maye, as we've covered, does not.

With a Patriots front capable of manufacturing pressure through blitzes, that weakness could become more visible. The answer: make them regret it. Quick throws. Tight end involvement. Screens to Jeanty. Motion that forces defenders to show their hand. And when New England commits too many defenders to the pocket, take advantage of the coverage they've given up.

This is exactly the sort of game where Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer can make life miserable for a defense.

New England's Secondary Is a Bigger Story Than You Think

The Patriots' injury report might be the most interesting development of the week.

Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III and Karon Prunty all sat out Wednesday's practice. Charles Woods and Channing Canada were limited. That's five cornerbacks on the report, and Marcus Jones is the only healthy corner on the roster who isn't. Wide receiver Mack Hollins, who has been New England's most efficient target in the Lab at 0.75 points per target, also missed practice with a calf injury.

Gonzalez still looks like the talented cornerback New England expected him to become, and I wouldn't build a game plan around the assumption that he's unavailable. Wednesday is not Sunday. But even if two or three of those corners play, they won't be at full strength, and that is significant however the final injury report shakes out.

For a Raiders receiving corps dealing with its own injuries (Jalen Nailor is in concussion protocol after the Kansas City game), this could open things up.

Bowers and Mayer remain the most intriguing pieces. In the Lab, Bowers is adding 0.57 points per target and Mayer 0.26 through four games. That efficiency is exactly why I want to see Kubiak keep leaning on multiple-tight-end looks. The Raiders don't need an explosive outside receiver to win every matchup. They need to create space for the weapons they already have.

If Cousins can identify pressure and get the ball into his playmakers' hands, New England's aggressiveness can become a liability.

But protecting the ball has to stay the priority. The Raiders aren't going to beat good teams consistently if every productive offensive performance comes with multiple giveaways.

Kubiak vs. Vrabel, and the Number Nobody Is Talking About

One more thing from the Lab's coaching page. This is the first time Kubiak and Vrabel have met, and the Patriots are favored by 3.5 at home.

Kubiak is 4-0 against the spread in his first four games as a head coach, including 3-0 as an underdog. Vrabel is 2-1-1 this season and 16-5 in a Patriots uniform. Neither of those means anything on Sunday. But a rookie head coach who keeps covering is worth noticing, and Las Vegas has a 4-6 record against New England since 1999 that this team doesn't owe anything to.

I'm picking the Raiders to win outright. As a 3.5-point underdog, that's a bolder pick than it sounds.

The Five Things I'm Watching

I've already submitted my official Week 5 prediction, along with five keys I'll grade after the game. Here's what I'm looking for.

1. Win the ground game. The Raiders don't have to run for 200 yards. They do need enough consistency that Cousins isn't facing an obvious passing down on every third down. Against this front, I'd call anything under 100 rushing yards or 3.5 yards a carry a failure.

2. Touchdowns, not field goals. Moving the ball means very little if drives keep ending at three points. The Raiders gained 437 yards against Kansas City, kicked four field goals and lost by three. Finishing drives matters, and on the road against a team that just beat Buffalo, leaving touchdowns on the field is dangerous.

3. Win the turnover battle. For the first three weeks, takeaways defined the Raiders' defense. Against Kansas City, the team's giveaways defined the loss. Maye has already shown that pressure can lead to risky decisions. The Raiders have to capitalize without being reckless themselves.

4. Tighten up in the red zone. The Raiders have done an excellent job making quarterbacks uncomfortable, but that doesn't automatically translate into preventing points. New England has enough offensive talent to move the ball. When the field shortens, the defense has to tighten up, especially if Maye starts extending plays with his legs. Make the Patriots settle for field goals.

5. Pressure Maye in the pocket. This is the matchup I'm most confident in. The Raiders' pass rush is one of the league's best, and New England has struggled to protect its quarterback. But the assignment isn't just sacks. It's forcing uncomfortable throws, containing Maye as a runner and trusting the secondary to finish the job.

The Honeymoon Is Over. That's a Good Thing.

Klint Kubiak is four games into his head coaching career. He's 3-1.

A year ago, most Raiders fans would have gladly taken that start without asking another question. But expectations change when you start winning, and after watching this team go toe-to-toe with Kansas City, I'm no longer interested in celebrating close losses to good opponents.

The Raiders have shown they belong on the field with quality teams. Now they need to show they can beat them, consistently.

That's where coaching matters. Can Kubiak fix the run game? Can the offense stop giving away possessions? Can Rob Leonard keep this defense aggressive without allowing another explosive rushing performance?

None of those problems is impossible to solve, and New England gives the Raiders a chance to attack several of them at once.

The Patriots deserve respect, especially after last weekend. But respect doesn't mean fear. The Raiders have the better pass-rush matchup, a real opportunity to get the run game going and enough talent in the passing game to test a banged-up New England secondary. Four weeks into the season, those are the advantages good teams are supposed to cash in.

My Prediction: Raiders 27, Patriots 19

I've locked in my official prediction: Raiders 27, Patriots 19.

Yes, I realize New England just beat Buffalo. I'm not ignoring that. I simply think the Raiders match up better against this Patriots team than the records suggest.

I expect the run game to improve against a vulnerable New England front. I expect Cousins to find success with his tight ends and the underneath passing game. And I expect Crosby and the pass rush to create enough problems for Maye that New England struggles to finish drives.

The Patriots will move the ball. Maye will make plays. I wouldn't be surprised if his legs frustrate the Raiders more than once.

But I see Las Vegas controlling enough of this game to avoid another last-second finish. Give me the Raiders by eight.

The undefeated season is over, and the honeymoon period has officially ended. Good. Because eventually every promising football team has to stop being an interesting story and start becoming a legitimate contender.

The Raiders have spent four weeks showing us what they might become. Sunday is another chance to show us who they actually are.

Just win, baby.

A note on the numbers: every rank in this piece comes from the Raiders Rundown Lab, which grades each position group on per-play stats (things like pressure rate, drops and points added per run) and ranks all 32 teams. They aren't film grades, so they won't always match PFF or other sites. Here's how they're calculated.

Your turn: that pick is on the record at the Prediction Scoreboard. Make your own call there before kickoff, then come back and tell me where I'm wrong.