Can the Raiders make Patrick Mahomes uncomfortable for four quarters without having to sell out to do it?

Because I don't think Las Vegas is shutting Mahomes down.

Let's get that out of the way now.

He's Patrick Mahomes. Through three games he's completing 68.4% of his passes with 812 yards and seven touchdowns. Kansas City owns the NFL's No. 2 offense at 416.3 yards per game, and the Chiefs are scoring exactly the same 29.3 points per game as the Raiders.

Mahomes is going to make throws Sunday that piss you off.

He's going to escape something that looked like a sack.

He's going to find Travis Kelce standing inexplicably alone on third-and-8.

Kansas City is probably going to put together at least one drive where you start wondering how anybody has ever stopped this offense.

That's not the battle.

The battle is making him do it again. And again. And again.

Because this Raiders defense has become really good at making an offense feel like everything is going fine right up until the possession suddenly belongs to Las Vegas.

And against Kansas City, that might be the entire game.

The Chiefs Are 3-0. They're Also Not Untouchable.

Watching Kansas City's 24-10 win over Miami last week, there were stretches where the Chiefs looked exactly like what their record says they are.

Mahomes was ridiculously efficient.

He finished 20-of-24 for 246 yards and two touchdowns. On play-action specifically, he went 11-of-12 for 183 yards and a touchdown.

That's terrifying.

But there was another part of that game that caught my attention.

Miami answered Kansas City's opening touchdown with a 17-play, 91-yard touchdown drive.

Then the Dolphins kept moving the football.

After that first touchdown, Miami advanced into Kansas City territory on five consecutive possessions.

Five.

They scored three points on them.

That's the interesting part.

Kansas City's defense is legitimately good. They're fourth in total defense, sixth against the pass and allowing only 16.7 points per game. This isn't some secretly terrible unit being propped up by Mahomes.

But Miami showed there are yards available.

They just couldn't finish anything.

And that should be plastered all over the Raiders' offensive meeting room this week.

Field goals aren't good enough Sunday.

Las Vegas learned this lesson in New Orleans.

The Raiders moved the ball on their opening possession and got three.

They got another field goal in the second quarter.

Then right before halftime they reached the goal line and settled for another one.

Three scoring possessions. Nine points.

Against the Saints, you can survive that.

Against Patrick Mahomes?

Good luck.

If Kirk Cousins gets Las Vegas inside the 20 this week, touchdowns need to be the expectation.

Contenders don't walk away from a Patrick Mahomes game talking about how many successful drives ended in 37-yard field goals.

Here's The Weird Thing: Mahomes Could Be Great And Still Have A Miserable Afternoon

I can already picture the broadcast shot.

Fourth quarter.

Mahomes sitting on the bench.

Helmet off.

Grass or turf pellets stuck to his jersey.

That incredibly annoyed Mahomes face while CBS zooms in for about six seconds too long.

Because I think that's the type of afternoon this Raiders defensive front can create.

That doesn't mean Mahomes finishes 17-of-34 with four interceptions.

Actually, I think there's a decent chance his box score looks really good.

The Raiders don't need to make him inaccurate.

They need to make him work.

Las Vegas is generating pressure on 36.3% of opposing dropbacks, second-best in the league, despite blitzing on only 19.5% of those plays. The Raiders also rank second in quarterback pressures with 41 and are tied for second with 28 quarterback hits.

That might be the single most important statistic entering this game.

Because Mahomes has spent his entire career destroying defenses that panic.

Blitz him recklessly and he'll find the empty grass.

Lose contain and he'll extend the play.

Sit back completely passive and he'll take seven yards until the defense eventually dies.

The Raiders potentially have another option:

Rush four and still make him move.

Maxx Crosby doesn't have to do this by himself anymore.

Malcolm Koonce, Kwity Paye and Folorunso Fatukasi have combined for five sacks and 12 quarterback hits alongside him.

That allows Rob Leonard to keep bodies behind the rush.

And that's where this gets fascinating.

Because I'm actually with Mahomes on one thing: this game probably starts with Maxx.

Kansas City's entire protection plan has to know where No. 98 is before every snap.

Chip him.

Slide toward him.

Put a tight end there.

Send help.

Do whatever you want.

But every additional resource Kansas City spends dealing with Crosby creates an opportunity somewhere else.

That's the difference between Maxx Crosby being a superstar on a bad defense and Maxx Crosby being the centerpiece of a legitimately dangerous defense.

And Kansas City's Left Tackle Is Out

There's another wrinkle here that shouldn't be buried.

Chiefs tackle Josh Simmons has been ruled out.

Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes was listed with a knee injury this week, although he practiced fully and carries no game designation.

I'm not suggesting Mahomes is limited.

I'm saying this is probably not the Sunday where Kansas City wants him taking 10 quarterback hits.

Especially against this defensive line.

Miami got a clean shot on Mahomes in its own end zone last week.

Expect Las Vegas to spend four quarters trying to recreate that feeling.

Hit him legally.

Move him off his spot.

Force him to reset.

Make him escape one direction, then have somebody waiting there.

And when Mahomes inevitably pulls off some stupid 19-yard completion anyway?

Line up and do it again.

I'm Planting The Flag: Hezekiah Masses Gets Another One

Is predicting a Mahomes interception after spending the last five paragraphs talking about how efficient he's going to be contradictory?

Maybe.

I'm doing it anyway.

Hezekiah Masses gets interception No. 4 on Sunday.

The rookie already has three picks, tied for the league lead, and opposing quarterbacks have produced just an 18.2 passer rating when targeting him through three games.

Now here's what makes that prediction borderline stupid:

Mahomes has historically been absurdly careful against the Raiders.

Since 2019, he's thrown 30 touchdowns against only four interceptions versus Las Vegas.

That's exactly why I'm interested in it.

I don't expect Mahomes to suddenly start throwing reckless balls into double coverage.

I expect one play where the pass rush changes the timing by half a second.

One throw where Mahomes is moving instead of planted.

One tipped ball.

One route Masses recognizes before the receiver does.

That's how this Raiders defense has been winning possessions.

Not by suffocating an offense for 70 straight plays.

By creating chaos at exactly the right moment.

The Raiders' Defensive Stats Need Some Context

This is important because people are going to look at Las Vegas allowing 316.7 yards per game and say:

"They're 11th in defense. What's so special?"

Watch the games.

Against New Orleans, the Saints moved the football.

Tyler Shough threw four touchdowns.

New Orleans scored 27 points.

And then their final four possessions all ended in turnovers.

Malcolm Koonce strip sack.

Hezekiah Masses interception.

Jeremy Chinn strip sack.

Nakobe Dean forced fumble.

Game over.

That's why raw yardage can be misleading with this team.

An opponent can pick up two or three first downs, cross midfield and add 45 yards to the stat sheet.

Then Nakobe Dean punches the football out.

Those 45 yards still count.

The possession doesn't.

Las Vegas leads the NFL with nine takeaways and five fumble recoveries through three games.

Eventually, yes, turnover luck can regress.

You can't build an entire defensive philosophy around hoping somebody drops the football.

But when the same defense is also among the league leaders in pressures and quarterback hits?

That's different.

Pressure creates rushed decisions.

Hits create bad throws.

Bodies around the football create fumbles.

The turnovers aren't happening in isolation.

The Biggest Problem Might Actually Be Kenneth Walker

For all the Mahomes discussion, Las Vegas can't become so obsessed with No. 15 that it forgets the guy standing behind him.

Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL with 360 rushing yards through three weeks and already has 442 yards from scrimmage. Kansas City is averaging 153.3 rushing yards per game, fifth-best in football.

And here's the uncomfortable part:

The Raiders currently rank just 19th against the run at 116.3 yards allowed per game.

That's the matchup Kansas City should test immediately.

If the Chiefs can consistently get four, five and six yards with Walker, everything else becomes easier.

Now Mahomes gets second-and-5.

Play-action becomes terrifying.

The pass rush can't pin its ears back.

Crosby has to respect the run.

The linebackers start stepping toward the line.

Then Kelce appears behind them.

You know the movie.

The Raiders need to make Kansas City play third-and-7 instead of third-and-2.

That's how you unleash this pass rush.

And there's another fun subplot here: Klint Kubiak knows Walker extremely well after calling plays for him in Seattle last season.

That doesn't magically mean Vegas stops him.

But if anybody understands where Walker is dangerous and how Kansas City might try to feature him, it's probably the Raiders' head coach.

Kirk Cousins Is A Much Different Test Than Malik Willis

Here's where comparing both teams against Miami gets interesting.

The Raiders beat Miami 27-13 in Week 1.

Kansas City beat Miami 24-10 in Week 3.

Same 14-point margin.

Very different games.

Las Vegas opened its game with a 93-yard drive that consumed nearly nine minutes, with Cousins completing his first nine passes.

The Raiders led 10-0.

Miami briefly made it interesting after a Cousins interception, but Las Vegas answered immediately, regained control and finished with five sacks while holding Miami to 2-of-10 on third down.

Kansas City's matchup felt much less comfortable.

Miami tied the game with that 91-yard first-quarter drive, repeatedly crossed midfield and still had a realistic chance to tie the game with about six minutes remaining.

Common opponents aren't mathematical equations.

Raiders > Dolphins and Chiefs > Dolphins does not tell us Raiders > Chiefs.

But it does tell us something about style.

Malik Willis gave Kansas City problems at times.

Cousins presents a very different challenge.

He's tied for the NFL lead with nine touchdown passes, and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo specifically pointed to how quickly Cousins gets the ball out as something that makes him difficult to defend.

And against Steve Spagnuolo, that matters.

Kansas City wants to muddy the picture.

Show pressure.

Drop out.

Move Chris Jones around.

Force the quarterback to hesitate.

Cousins has played enough football that he's seen almost all of it.

The Raiders don't need him to play superhero.

They need him to be the adult in the room.

Find the matchup.

Take the checkdown.

Get out of the bad play.

Throw the ball away when Chris Jones ruins everything.

Then hit the shot when Kansas City finally gives it to you.

Losing Jackson Powers-Johnson Matters

This is probably the Raiders injury I'm watching most closely.

Jackson Powers-Johnson is out with a groin injury.

And of course the opponent happens to have Chris Jones.

Perfect.

Tyler Linderbaum has been excellent so far, carrying a 93% pass-block win rate entering this matchup, but Kansas City is going to look for every possible way to stress the interior without JPJ beside him.

This is where Kubiak has to help Cousins.

Move the launch point.

Use play-action.

Get the ball out.

Make Kansas City's defensive line run sideways.

Use screens.

Don't spend the afternoon asking Cousins to stand seven yards deep and wait for 20-yard routes to develop against Chris Jones.

That's how you turn a manageable matchup into four sacks and a disaster.

This Feels Like An Ashton Jeanty Screen Game

If Kansas City comes out determined to suffocate the run, I wouldn't spend 20 carries proving how committed we are to establishing it.

Use Jeanty differently.

We've already seen what that can look like.

Against Miami in Week 1, Jeanty finished with 147 yards from scrimmage, including 45 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns.

That's the blueprint.

If Chris Jones and the Chiefs front are winning early, let them come.

Slip Jeanty behind them.

Running back screens.

Quick swing passes.

Motion him out.

Get him matched against a linebacker.

Make Kansas City's aggression work against it.

Jeanty doesn't need 25 carries to wreck this game.

He needs touches in space.

And I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes Sunday with five or six targets.

Give Mike Washington Jr. A Few Early

This shouldn't become a running-back controversy.

It's not.

Jeanty is the guy.

But Mike Washington Jr. deserves touches.

When the Raiders desperately needed life against New Orleans, Washington hit a hole and exploded for a 36-yard touchdown, reaching 19.76 mph according to Next Gen Stats.

Kubiak said afterward that Washington had "earned more opportunities."

Give him some.

Two carries early.

Maybe three.

Let Kansas City deal with a fresh back coming downhill.

More importantly, don't make his involvement predictable.

If Washington only enters when he's getting the football, Spagnuolo will solve that approximately three snaps into the game.

Use him in normal offensive situations and make Kansas City respect him.

Special Teams Could Quietly Decide This Game

This has been one of my favorite developments through three weeks.

The Raiders keep making life easier on themselves.

A return changes the starting field position.

A defense forces a turnover.

Suddenly Cousins isn't being asked to produce an 82-yard touchdown drive.

He's starting near midfield.

That's complementary football, and it's exactly how you beat teams that might have more offensive firepower than you.

Against Miami, Malik Benson popped a 23-yard punt return.

Dylan Laube produced a 44-yard kickoff return.

Another big Laube return immediately answered Miami's third-quarter touchdown and put Las Vegas near midfield.

Kansas City noticed too.

Chiefs special teams coordinator Dave Toub spent part of his media availability praising the Raiders unit, specifically its experience and how fast the group is playing.

One return past the 40 might not show up on the postgame highlight reel.

But against Kansas City, stealing 25 yards of field position can be worth points.

I Want The Raiders To Kick If They Win The Toss

Give me the ball to start the second half.

Seriously.

There's a dream opening sequence for this game:

Raiders kick.

Defense comes out completely juiced and forces a three-and-out.

Cousins gets the football.

Kubiak runs through his first eight to 10 scripted calls.

Touchdown.

Now the entire stadium is alive.

More importantly, you preserve the possibility of the double possession around halftime.

Score late in the second quarter.

Get the kickoff to start the third.

Score again.

There aren't many better momentum swings in football than turning a 17-14 game into 31-14 while the other offense watches from the sideline.

Obviously, football isn't Madden.

You don't just order a three-and-out and two touchdowns.

But with an offense this dependent on timing and a defense this emotionally charged, I like giving Las Vegas a chance to establish the tone defensively first and still own the opening possession after halftime.

The Raiders Cannot Get Cute In The Red Zone

This is my biggest offensive key.

Not sacks.

Not rushing yards.

Not time of possession.

Touchdowns.

Kansas City's game against Miami should terrify the Raiders precisely because the Dolphins moved the football.

Miami kept reaching Chiefs territory.

Kansas City kept surviving.

That's what good teams do.

They don't panic because you got to the 31-yard line.

They tighten the windows.

They win third down.

They force you to kick.

Then Mahomes gets the football back and suddenly your successful 11-play drive netted three points while Kansas City's next six plays produce seven.

The Raiders settled for three field goals against New Orleans.

That can't happen again.

If Vegas gets five legitimate scoring opportunities Sunday, it probably needs touchdowns on at least three or four of them.

This is the game where the difference between 3rd-and-goal from the four ending with Brock Bowers celebrating and ending with Matt Gay jogging onto the field could decide first place in the AFC West.

So What Does This Game Actually Look Like?

I don't expect a blowout in either direction.

I expect something much more stressful.

Mahomes will be efficient.

Kansas City will move the football.

Kenneth Walker will probably break at least two runs that makes the entire stadium groan.

Cousins will have to identify three different versions of the same Spagnuolo pressure package.

Chris Jones is going to destroy at least one Raiders play before it begins.

Maxx Crosby is going to hit Mahomes.

Then hit him again.

Somewhere in the second half, Mahomes is going to scramble out of what should be a sack and complete a pass that makes absolutely no sense.

And somewhere else in the second half, I think the Raiders defense takes the football away.

That's what this game comes down to.

Not whether Las Vegas can stop Kansas City from producing yards.

They probably can't.

Can the Raiders steal possessions?

Can Masses take one away?

Can Crosby or Koonce knock one loose?

Can special teams hand Cousins a 45-yard field?

Can Vegas turn four red-zone trips into 28 instead of 16?

That's how the Raiders win.

My Prediction

I'm buying the 3-0 start.

Not because I think the Raiders are suddenly flawless.

They're not.

The run defense worries me.

Losing Powers-Johnson against Chris Jones worries me.

And betting against Patrick Mahomes in a one-possession fourth quarter has historically been a fantastic way to ruin your Sunday.

But this Raiders defense is uniquely built to make this version of Kansas City uncomfortable.

They don't need to blitz constantly.

They have multiple rushers.

They attack the football.

They've already shown they can survive offensive success and completely flip a game with one possession.

And for the first time in a long time, the Raiders have a veteran quarterback on the other side who shouldn't completely lose his mind when Kansas City changes the picture.

So yes.

I'm doing it.

Raiders 30, Chiefs 27.

Mahomes has a good statistical game.

Crosby spends most of the afternoon making sure he doesn't enjoy it.

Jeanty does more damage as a receiver than people expect.

Mike Washington gets another chunk play.

The return unit creates at least one short field.

And Hezekiah Masses?

Interception No. 4.

3-0 versus 3-0.

First place in the AFC West.

A chance for the Raiders to start 4-0 for the first time since 2002.

For the first time in years, Raiders-Chiefs doesn't feel like Las Vegas trying to prove it can hang around.

It feels tactical.

It feels nasty.

It feels like one turnover, one red-zone possession or one third-down sack is going to decide the entire thing.

Exactly how Raiders-Chiefs is supposed to feel.

Just win, baby.