NFL Power Rankings After Week 4: Three Undefeated Teams Remain, and Jacksonville Is For Real
Hunter Macias
October 6, 2026 · 21 min read
Four weeks is where the excuses start getting harder to make.
A weird Week 1 can be dismissed. Two games can be a matchup problem. Even three weeks leaves room for arguments about turnovers, injuries and small samples.
After four?
Patterns are starting to become identities.
San Francisco, Kansas City and Minnesota are the last undefeated teams in football. Jacksonville has gone from interesting to impossible to ignore. Chicago just dominated another game without its starting quarterback. New England went from losing 35-6 to beating the team I had ranked No. 1.
And the Raiders finally lost.
They lost 30-27 to the Chiefs after leading 19-17 with less than five minutes to play, and the game turned in a 19-second stretch that included a fumbled kickoff. (Full breakdown in the game report.) Oddly enough, I may trust them more now than I did at 3-0.
That's the difference between power rankings and standings.
The question isn't simply who won?
It's what did we learn?
Here are all 32 teams after Week 4, with every move measured against last week's list. If you want the full paper trail, Week 2 is where this started, and the live rankings page has the whole season.
The Teams I Trust
1. San Francisco 49ers (4-0) — ↑1
There isn't much left to argue.
Four games. Four wins.
San Francisco didn't produce the offensive fireworks we saw in the 36-30 win over Arizona, but beating Denver 24-14 showed another way this team can win.
That's what separates the top teams from everyone else.
The 49ers don't need Brock Purdy throwing four touchdowns every Sunday. They don't need 400-plus yards. They don't need every game to follow the same script.
They can win when the offense explodes.
They can win when the defense has to carry more of the load.
At 4-0, they're the most complete team I've seen. For the first time this season, San Francisco is No. 1.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) — ↑1
I wanted the Raiders to expose something.
Instead, Kansas City reminded everyone why they're Kansas City.
But let's be honest about how this one went, because the 30-27 final doesn't tell it. The Chiefs were outgained 437-399. They ran 58 plays to Las Vegas' 78 and held the ball for 24:18 to the Raiders' 35:42. Patrick Mahomes finished 15-of-30 for 225 yards and was under pressure most of the afternoon. Kansas City went 5-of-13 on third down, and Travis Kelce caught two passes for 15 yards.
The Chiefs had 10 points through three quarters. The Raiders led 13-10 at the half.
Then Kansas City did what Kansas City does: it waited, and it took the three plays it needed.
Kenneth Walker III broke a 76-yard run on the last snap of the third quarter. With the Raiders up 19-17 and 4:53 left, Tyquan Thornton got behind the defense for 55 yards, and Walker scored from two. Then Dareke Young fumbled the ensuing kickoff, Kansas City recovered at the Vegas 22, and Walker scored on the very next snap.
That's 13 points in 19 seconds of game clock, and the Raiders' offense never touched the ball for any of it.
Walker finished with 22 carries for 177 yards and two touchdowns. Kansas City ran for 189 yards at 7.3 a carry. Mahomes didn't have to be Superman. A running back and a loose football did it for him.
That's the part that's terrifying. The Chiefs didn't have to play their best game to win this one. They just had to be standing there when it cracked open.
They get the No. 2 spot because they won the one game that mattered between these two teams, and because they're the AFC's only undefeated team. Not because they were the better team for most of the afternoon. They weren't.
Kansas City heads into its Week 5 bye at 4-0. The Raiders get another shot in Week 18.
3. Minnesota Vikings (4-0) — ↑1
Minnesota keeps winning games that don't necessarily look impressive on a highlight reel.
That's becoming the point.
The Vikings beat Miami 15-10 and once again leaned on a defense that has become the identity of this team. Over the last two weeks that unit has allowed 16 points to Tampa Bay and 10 to Miami.
Four games into the season, I'm done treating that as a hot start.
Brian Flores has built one of the nastiest units in football.
The offense still creates questions. Against better teams, Minnesota will eventually need to score more than 15.
But if your bad offensive afternoons still end with wins?
You're doing something right.
4. Buffalo Bills (3-1) — ↓3
This is what happens when No. 1 loses at home.
New England didn't steal this game with some ridiculous sequence. The Patriots went into Buffalo and beat the Bills 29-26.
That doesn't erase what Buffalo showed during the first three weeks, which is why this is a three-spot slide and not a free fall.
Josh Allen is still Josh Allen.
The roster is still one of the best in football.
But the margin for error at the top of these rankings is tiny, and Buffalo has now played with fire in consecutive weeks.
Last week they survived five turnovers against the Chargers.
This week they didn't survive New England.
Four feels right. And the Bills are a team the Raiders will see in Week 6, which makes how they respond very interesting.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) — ↑4
Okay.
I'm buying it.
Last week I moved Jacksonville up eight spots after the 35-6 blowout of New England, and the obvious question was whether one dominant afternoon was a real signal or just a good matchup.
Then the Jaguars went into Cincinnati and won again, 22-17.
That's different.
Jacksonville didn't need a 29-point blowout or a parade of opponent mistakes. They went into a difficult environment, held Cincinnati to 17 points and came out 3-1.
At some point, repeatedly winning games becomes evidence.
Trevor Lawrence doesn't need to carry this team every week because Jacksonville is finding different ways to create advantages.
The Jaguars aren't just the cute September story anymore.
They're fifth.
The Contenders With Something to Prove
6. Chicago Bears (3-1) — ↑1
What exactly am I supposed to do with this team?
Chicago has now won games with three different starting quarterbacks. Last week it was Case Keenum against an unbeaten Eagles team. This week Tyson Bagent started against the Jets.
The Bears gained 492 yards. The Jets gained 157.
Chicago possessed the ball for nearly 43 minutes, ran 89 offensive plays and allowed New York to run 32.
Kyle Monangai rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns.
That's not surviving without Caleb Williams.
That's annihilating somebody without Caleb Williams.
At some point we need to stop calling Chicago's quarterback situation an excuse and start recognizing how good the rest of this roster might be.
The Bears are 3-1.
And somehow, I still feel like No. 6 might be conservative.
7. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) — ↑1
Last week I said the Washington loss wasn't a full-blown crisis.
Seattle responded exactly how a good team should.
The Seahawks beat the Chargers 30-23 and moved to 3-1.
It wasn't spotless. Los Angeles stayed around. Seattle's offense disappeared for stretches late.
But good teams don't need to dominate every week.
More importantly, the explosive offense we saw through the first three games hasn't vanished because of one turnover-heavy loss.
Seattle belongs back near the top.
Now comes the fun part.
Week 5: 49ers at Seahawks.
We'll learn a lot. (The Raiders get both of these teams in back-to-back weeks in November: at San Francisco in Week 9, then Seattle at home in Week 10.)
8. Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) — ↓3
Here's where being a Raiders site still doesn't mean lying to ourselves.
Las Vegas lost.
Kansas City deserves to be ranked higher.
But this is the most encouraging loss I can remember, and I don't mean that as a moral victory.
The Raiders controlled this game. They outgained Kansas City 437-399. They ran 78 plays to 58, had 28 first downs to 18 and held the ball for 35:42. Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns and was never sacked. The three tight ends, Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer and Ian Thomas, combined for 16 catches, 200 yards and both Raiders touchdowns.
Vegas led 13-10 at the half. It held Patrick Mahomes to 15-of-30 and the Chiefs to 10 points through three quarters. It led 19-17 with 4:53 left.
Then came 19 seconds.
Tyquan Thornton got behind the defense for 55 yards. Kenneth Walker III scored from two. Dareke Young fumbled the ensuing kickoff, Kansas City recovered at the Vegas 22, and Walker scored again on the next snap.
The Raiders went from leading to trailing 30-19 without their offense running a play.
Take away that one fumble and it's 23-19 with the ball and 3:21 on the clock for an offense that had been moving it all afternoon. I think the Raiders probably win that game. That's not a guarantee when the other sideline has Mahomes, but it's about as close to "they should have won" as a loss gets.
And they didn't fold. Cousins drove 65 yards in five plays for a Bowers touchdown, Cody White caught the two-point conversion, and Las Vegas had the ball at the Kansas City 49 in the final minute before a desperation interception ended it. (Full recap here.)
There are real concerns, and they're the same ones I flagged in the preview.
Kansas City ran for 189 yards at 7.3 a carry while Las Vegas managed 72 at 2.8. Three Walker runs of 21 or more yards produced 119 of his 177. Three throws, 41, 42 and 55 yards, were 138 of Mahomes' 225 passing yards. Explosive plays killed the Raiders.
The offense also settled for four field goals in a three-point loss, including a trip where a made kick was wiped out by a penalty and the Raiders went for it on fourth down and came up empty. The rushing game never got going, and Jeanty did his damage as a receiver. How sustainable is that when Cousins has to throw his way out of trouble?
But four weeks in, here's the important part:
The Raiders haven't looked like a fluke yet.
They're 3-1.
They just went punch-for-punch with the AFC's only undefeated team and gave away the game, not lost it.
No. 8 feels less like punishment for losing and more like confirmation that Las Vegas belongs in this conversation. Next up is a trip to New England in Week 5, and the Patriots just beat the team I had No. 1.
9. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) — ↑3
Baltimore beat Tennessee.
That's what good teams are supposed to do.
The concern is Lamar Jackson.
A 24-18 win over an 0-3 Titans team wasn't particularly impressive to begin with, and Jackson leaving with an ankle injury immediately becomes more important than anything that happened on the scoreboard.
When Lamar is healthy, Baltimore has top-five upside.
If he misses meaningful time, almost everything about this ranking changes.
For now, the Ravens move up because they're 3-1 and continue finding ways to win.
But this ranking comes with an asterisk shaped like Lamar Jackson's ankle.
10. Los Angeles Rams (2-2) — ↑1
Last week the Rams lost a one-score game in Denver, 30-26, and I said it wasn't a collapse.
This week they answered it.
Los Angeles went into Philadelphia, trailed late and scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to steal a 24-20 win.
That's almost the exact inverse of what happened against Denver.
And that's why the Rams move into the top 10 despite being only 2-2.
There is more offensive ability here than the record suggests.
Now they've finally paired it with a finish.
The Teams Making Me Reconsider Everything
11. Cleveland Browns (3-1) — ↑8
This is the biggest climb of the week.
And they've earned it.
Cleveland has won three straight.
The Browns beat Pittsburgh 27-24 on Thursday despite blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead, then responded with a game-winning 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds remaining.
Deshaun Watson threw for 268 yards. Cleveland intercepted Aaron Rodgers twice and sacked him five times.
Last week I was skeptical because the Browns beat Carolina despite producing only 259 yards.
This was different.
There was real quarterback production.
There was pass rush.
There was resilience after giving away the lead.
One strange win can happen.
Three straight wins start to look like an identity.
Cleveland is officially interesting. (The Raiders visit the Browns in Week 12.)
12. Denver Broncos (2-2) — ↓2
This is less about Denver collapsing and more about the teams around them improving.
The Broncos lost 24-14 to the best team in these rankings.
That's not a disaster.
It does, however, reinforce what I questioned after Denver's win over the Rams.
The Broncos have shown they can create turnovers and manufacture ugly wins.
I'm still waiting to see the offense consistently create enough on its own.
Denver can beat good teams.
I'm less convinced it can dictate games against them. The Raiders get the Broncos twice in the back half, in Week 11 and Week 15.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) — ↓7
Two losses can be explained.
The pattern is harder to explain.
Cincinnati lost a close game to Pittsburgh last week and I barely punished them because Joe Burrow played well and the Bengals were one late strip-sack away from potentially winning.
Then Jacksonville came to Cincinnati and beat them 22-17.
Now we have something to talk about.
This offense has too much talent to score 17 points at home in a game like this.
The Bengals aren't suddenly bad.
But the gap between their reputation and what they've actually put on the field is widening.
That's enough for a seven-spot drop.
14. Carolina Panthers (2-2) — ↑4
There it is.
That's the version of Carolina I've been waiting to see.
Bryce Young threw for 329 yards. Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns. Chuba Hubbard ran for 122 yards and two more scores.
Carolina put up 32 points and nearly 450 yards against Detroit.
Last week I wrote that the difference between Carolina being interesting and actually being good was situational execution.
Sunday night, they executed.
The Panthers aren't a finished product.
But 2-2 suddenly looks a lot more interesting than it did seven days ago. They're off in Week 5, which gives them a week to enjoy it.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) — ↓2
Two weeks ago Philadelphia was undefeated.
Now they've lost two straight.
And unlike the Chicago game, this one might hurt even more because the Eagles actually had control of it.
The Rams scored twice late and turned what looked like a Philadelphia response game into another loss.
Talent isn't the issue.
Nobody should look at this roster and conclude the Eagles suddenly can't compete.
But good teams finish games.
Philadelphia hasn't done that for two consecutive weeks.
Until it does, they're drifting toward the middle.
16. New York Giants (3-1) — ↑5
I still don't completely know what to make of the Giants.
But 3-1 gets your attention.
New York survived Tennessee last week without scoring a touchdown.
Then it followed that up by beating Arizona.
Considering the injuries already surrounding this team, with rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart out for the season and J.J. McCarthy brought in to steady the position, stacking wins matters.
I'm still much more confident in several 2-2 teams above New York than the Giants' record would suggest.
But winning three of four while your roster gets punched in the mouth deserves respect.
They're up five.
17. New England Patriots (2-2) — ↑9
Seven days ago New England lost 35-6, and Drake Maye got benched in the fourth quarter.
Now they just beat my No. 1 team.
Welcome to the NFL.
Maye and the Patriots went into Buffalo and won 29-26, answering the single biggest question I had after last week's Jacksonville disaster:
Was that loss evidence that New England was terrible?
Apparently not.
One upset doesn't erase getting destroyed by Jacksonville.
But beating Buffalo on the road is the kind of result that forces a complete reevaluation.
So that's what I'm doing.
New England jumps nine spots, and the Raiders are headed to Foxborough in Week 5.
18. Detroit Lions (2-2) — ↓4
The offense isn't my concern.
The defense is becoming impossible to ignore.
Jared Goff threw for 412 yards against Carolina and Detroit still lost 32-26.
The Panthers scored on six consecutive possessions at one point.
That's a problem.
Detroit has enough offensive talent to turn almost any game into a shootout.
But constantly requiring the offense to erase what the defense gives away isn't a sustainable path to beating the teams at the top of this list.
Two-and-two isn't panic territory.
The way they're getting there deserves attention.
19. Indianapolis Colts (2-2) — ↑1
Indianapolis might quietly be stabilizing.
The Colts went to London and beat Washington 30-13, which is a much cleaner result than last week's survival act against Houston.
That's two straight wins after an 0-2 start.
I'm still not ready to make some massive proclamation about the Colts.
But the direction has changed.
Last week they proved they could survive an ugly game.
This week they proved they could control one.
That's progress.
20. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) — ↑2
Maybe Dallas finally remembered that CeeDee Lamb is ridiculous.
The Cowboys erased a 10-point halftime deficit and beat Houston 34-30.
Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards, while Javonte Williams scored three rushing touchdowns in the second half.
That's the type of offensive ceiling that has kept Dallas from falling further in these rankings even when the wins weren't there.
Now they're 2-2.
The defense still makes me nervous.
But if Dak Prescott and Lamb can consistently create this much offense, Dallas remains dangerous.
The Uncomfortable Middle
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) — ↓5
This is exactly why I didn't throw Pittsburgh into the top 10 last week.
The offense looked legitimately impressive against Cincinnati.
It showed flashes again against Cleveland.
Aaron Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns.
And Pittsburgh still lost.
Two interceptions and five sacks are hard to survive, and the Steelers needed a fourth-quarter rally just to erase an 11-point deficit before Cleveland took the game back.
The ceiling is higher than I thought entering the season.
The floor remains very real.
22. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) — ↑3
Last week I wrote that a team that looked lost two weeks earlier had just posted its most complete performance of the season, a 35-14 beatdown of Green Bay.
Monday night was the follow-up.
Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson each scored twice, Atlanta led at the half, and the Falcons finished off New Orleans, 45-24.
The biggest difference is obvious.
Michael Penix Jr. is back, and suddenly the Falcons have an offense capable of actually maximizing Bijan Robinson, Drake London and the rest of this roster.
One explosive performance can be noise.
Doing it again starts becoming something else.
Atlanta's 0-2 start hasn't disappeared.
But neither has the team we've watched since Penix returned.
They're climbing.
23. New Orleans Saints (1-3) — ↓8
Last week I defended New Orleans.
The Saints outgained Las Vegas 381-340. Tyler Shough threw four touchdowns. They led 27-16 in the fourth quarter before four straight turnovers destroyed the game. (The Raiders game report has all four.)
My argument was simple:
New Orleans could clearly play with good teams. The question was whether it could survive the moments that decide games.
Monday night was supposed to answer that.
Instead, Atlanta gave us a different problem.
At 1-3, close losses and encouraging quarterback flashes stop carrying much weight.
Eventually, you have to win. As the Panthers continue to look better are the Saints headed to the wrong direction ?
24. Green Bay Packers (2-2) — ↑3
Technically, this is progress.
Green Bay beat Tampa Bay 17-14.
But I'm not sure anyone should feel dramatically better about the Packers.
They committed 10 penalties, turned the ball over twice and needed their defense to close out a game against an 0-4 opponent starting an undrafted rookie quarterback.
A win is a win.
It's also possible to win and leave with more questions than answers.
Green Bay moves up because 2-2 is better than 1-3.
I need substantially more before they move much further.
25. Washington Commanders (1-3) — ↓8
Remember the Seattle win?
This is why I wanted another week.
Washington beat the Seahawks despite being outgained by 179 yards because the Commanders won the turnover battle 3-0.
That can happen.
Then Indianapolis beat them 30-13.
That's the problem with building conclusions around turnovers.
They aren't an offensive identity.
They aren't a defensive identity.
They're events.
Washington's Week 3 upset kept the season alive.
Week 4 reminded us why they were 0-2 before it happened.
26. New York Jets (1-3) — ↓2
Last week I said Geno Smith throwing for 321 yards in a loss wasn't a bad process, and that this might be the best I'd felt about a 1-2 team after a defeat.
That feeling is gone.
Chicago didn't just beat New York.
Chicago controlled almost every meaningful part of the game.
The Bears gained 492 yards to New York's 157.
Chicago ran 89 offensive plays.
The Jets ran 32.
New York didn't convert a single third down.
Geno Smith finished with 119 passing yards.
That's not losing a competitive game to a good opponent.
That's getting erased. The Raiders play at the Jets in Week 8.
27. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) — ↓4
For three weeks, Arizona's competitiveness kept earning them some benefit of the doubt, including a second-half comeback attempt against San Francisco in Week 3.
At some point, competitiveness has to become winning.
The Cardinals are now 1-3 after losing to the Giants.
That's three straight losses.
There are still things I like about this team, and they're not getting buried alongside the completely dysfunctional teams at the bottom.
But "they played hard" has an expiration date.
Arizona is approaching it. The Raiders visit Arizona in Week 17.
The Bottom Five
Nothing moves in the bottom five this week. That's what 0-4 does to a list.
28. Houston Texans (0-4) — no change
This might be the most frustrating 0-4 team in football.
C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas.
Nico Collins went for 118 yards and two scores.
Houston led by 10 at halftime.
They still lost 34-30.
Last week I wrote that something structurally wasn't working.
This week the offense finally worked.
And Houston still couldn't finish.
That's why the Texans hold No. 28 instead of sliding: an offense that puts up 30 points is a better problem to have than the ones below it.
But at 0-4, there are no more qualifiers.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) — no change
Tampa Bay lost 17-14 to Green Bay with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels making his first NFL start, after Baker Mayfield's thumb injury.
Daniels threw for 148 yards, ran for 55 more and gave the Buccaneers a legitimate opportunity to tie or win the game late.
There are no moral victories at 0-4.
But compared with the teams below them, Tampa Bay at least showed signs of something functional.
That's enough to hold the spot.
30. Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) — no change
Another week.
Another competitive loss.
Another zero in the win column.
Seattle beat Los Angeles 30-23.
At this point I don't particularly care whether the Chargers are better than their record.
They probably are.
They're also 0-4.
Eventually the conversation has to stop being about potential, Justin Herbert's talent or what this offense should become.
Win a football game. (The Raiders see them in Week 14.)
31. Tennessee Titans (0-4) — no change
Tennessee keeps doing just enough to remain respectable.
That's not the same as being good.
The Titans stayed within one possession of Baltimore and lost 24-18.
Again.
Competitive.
Again.
Winless.
At some point an NFL team has to prove it knows how to turn competitive football into victories.
Tennessee hasn't.
32. Miami Dolphins (0-4) — no change
Minnesota only scored 15 points.
Miami still couldn't win.
That's basically the entire argument.
The Dolphins were already dealing with an offense lacking explosiveness before losing De'Von Achane for the season.
Now they're 0-4 after producing 10 points against Minnesota. (The Raiders beat them 27-13 in Week 1.)
There might eventually be a team bad enough to take No. 32 from them.
Through four weeks, I haven't seen one.
What Week 4 Actually Changed
We're finally reaching the point where resumes matter more than preseason expectations.
Jacksonville is 3-1. Chicago is 3-1 despite starting three different quarterbacks. Cleveland is 3-1. New England just beat Buffalo. Carolina just put nearly 450 yards on Detroit.
Those aren't things we can dismiss because they don't match what we thought these teams were supposed to be in August.
Here are the biggest moves of the week:
- Patriots, ↑9 (26 to 17): Beat Buffalo 29-26 a week after losing 35-6 to Jacksonville
- Browns, ↑8 (19 to 11): Beat Pittsburgh 27-24 on a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left
- Giants, ↑5 (21 to 16): Beat Arizona to improve to 3-1
- Saints, ↓8 (15 to 23): Lost to Atlanta on Monday night to fall to 1-3
- Commanders, ↓8 (17 to 25): Lost 30-13 to Indianapolis a week after the Seattle upset
- Bengals, ↓7 (6 to 13): Lost 22-17 at home to Jacksonville
And then there are the Raiders.
Last week I wrote that Kansas City was the cleanest possible test of whether 3-0 was sustainable. Las Vegas failed the test if the only acceptable answer was winning.
I don't think that's what happened.
The Raiders led 13-10 at the half and 19-17 with less than five minutes left. They outgained Kansas City, ran 20 more plays, held the ball for nearly 36 minutes, got 365 yards from Kirk Cousins and pressured Patrick Mahomes all afternoon. Then a 55-yard bomb, a short touchdown, a fumbled kickoff and another touchdown erased the lead in 19 seconds, and Las Vegas still came back to within three.
The problems were also impossible to miss.
The run defense got destroyed. The Raiders couldn't establish their own rushing attack. Explosive plays and one special-teams disaster changed the game.
That's useful information.
Four weeks ago, I didn't know whether Las Vegas was actually good.
Now I do.
The question has changed.
It's no longer:
Are the Raiders real?
It's:
How good can they actually become?
Because Kansas City is 4-0. Las Vegas is 3-1. And there's still another meeting waiting in Week 18, at Arrowhead.
If you want to see exactly how the game turned, the Live page has the full win-probability swing, and the Lab's Week 4 breakdown lets you replay every drive.
Where am I wrong?
Is Jacksonville really a top-five team? Are the Bears somehow still too low? Did Buffalo fall too far after one loss? And after going punch-for-punch with Kansas City, where should the Raiders actually rank?
Drop your rankings in the comments.
Think you can out-pick me? Beat the Blogger is free, takes a handle and no email, and picks lock at kickoff. You can see how I'm doing on the Prediction Scoreboard.
Week 5 should make this even messier: the Raiders at the Patriots, the 49ers at the Seahawks, and the Chiefs and Panthers on a bye.
