2026 season · Through Week 2
Blogger vs. the Math
My rankings are opinion. The math is an Elo rating for every team, built from last season, every final score and the box scores, then played forward 10,000 times. Here is where we disagree, who has been right, what happens next, and who is likely to make the playoffs.
You are looking at how things stood after Week 2, using only what was known then. Back to the latest.
The Raiders
I have them No. 9. The math has them No. 19.
That puts me 10 spots higher than the math.
Make the playoffs
58%
Results alone: 70%
Win the AFC West
32%
Results alone: 43%
Projected wins
9.2
Now 2–0, 15 to play
Schedule left
No. 3
of 32, 1 is hardest
Where they finish: chance of each win total
Bright bars are totals still possible. Numbers are percent.
Why two numbers? The full model starts from last season’s ratings and looks at yards per play, not just the score, so it is slower to believe a hot start. Results alone put the Raiders at 70% to make the playoffs; the full model says 58%. Neither knows about injuries.
Next up: who wins?
The math’s forecast for the coming games, next to my pick. Where we pick different teams, you get a vote: who do you trust?
Week 3
- ATLFalconsatGBPackers
Thu, Sep 24, 5:15 PM PT
ATL 40%GB by 3.560% GBWe agreeMe: GB · Math: GB - CARPanthersatCLEBrowns
Sun, Sep 27, 10:00 AM PT
CAR 45%CLE by 1.555% CLEWe splitMe: CAR · Math: CLE - CINBengalsatPITSteelers
Sun, Sep 27, 10:00 AM PT
CIN 46%PIT by 154% PITWe splitMe: CIN · Math: PIT - HOUTexansatINDColts
Sun, Sep 27, 10:00 AM PT
HOU 46%IND by 1.554% INDWe splitMe: HOU · Math: IND - KCChiefsatMIADolphins
Sun, Sep 27, 10:00 AM PT
KC 48%MIA by 0.552% MIAWe splitMe: KC · Math: MIA - LACChargersatBUFBills
Sun, Sep 27, 10:00 AM PT
LAC 38%BUF by 462% BUFWe agreeMe: BUF · Math: BUF - NEPatriotsatJAXJaguars
Sun, Sep 27, 10:00 AM PT
NE 45%JAX by 1.555% JAXWe splitMe: NE · Math: JAX - NYJJetsatDETLions
Sun, Sep 27, 10:00 AM PT
NYJ 44%DET by 256% DETWe agreeMe: DET · Math: DET - SEASeahawksatWASCommanders
Sun, Sep 27, 10:00 AM PT
SEA 51%SEA by 0.549% WASWe agreeMe: SEA · Math: SEA - TENTitansatNYGGiants
Sun, Sep 27, 10:00 AM PT
TEN 44%NYG by 256% NYGWe agreeMe: NYG · Math: NYG - ARICardinalsatSF49ers
Sun, Sep 27, 1:05 PM PT
ARI 38%SF by 462% SFWe agreeMe: SF · Math: SF - MINVikingsatTBBuccaneers
Sun, Sep 27, 1:05 PM PT
MIN 46%TB by 1.554% TBWe splitMe: MIN · Math: TB - BALRavensatDALCowboys
Sun, Sep 27, 1:25 PM PT
BAL 47%DAL by 153% DALWe splitMe: BAL · Math: DAL - LVRaidersatNOSaints
Sun, Sep 27, 1:25 PM PT
LV 44%NO by 256% NOWe splitMe: LV · Math: NO - LARRamsatDENBroncos
Sun, Sep 27, 5:20 PM PT
LAR 46%DEN by 1.554% DENWe splitMe: LAR · Math: DEN - PHIEaglesatCHIBears
Mon, Sep 28, 5:15 PM PT
PHI 45%CHI by 1.555% CHIWe splitMe: PHI · Math: CHI
Percentages are the math’s chance each side wins, with home field, rest and travel included. The line is the margin the ratings expect, to the nearest half point. My pick is the higher team on my board.
Who has been right?
The rankings are only useful if they predict something. So every week’s board is graded on the next week’s games.
No games to grade yet. Once there are rankings for a week and results for the week after, the scoreboard fills in on its own.
Playoff odds
The rest of the season, played 10,000 times from the ratings. Each division is sorted by its chance to win it; the big number is the chance to make the playoffs.
AFC
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFBills | 2–0 | 10.0 W | 73% | Division 49% |
| NEPatriots | 1–1 | 8.6 W | 50% | Division 25% |
| NYJJets | 1–1 | 8.3 W | 43% | Division 19% |
| MIADolphins | 0–2 | 7.2 W | 19% | Division 7% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CINBengals | 2–0 | 9.7 W | 69% | Division 41% |
| BALRavens | 1–1 | 8.9 W | 55% | Division 27% |
| CLEBrowns | 1–1 | 8.5 W | 42% | Division 17% |
| PITSteelers | 1–1 | 8.2 W | 36% | Division 15% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAXJaguars | 1–1 | 8.6 W | 57% | Division 49% |
| HOUTexans | 0–2 | 7.3 W | 27% | Division 19% |
| INDColts | 0–2 | 7.1 W | 23% | Division 16% |
| TENTitans | 0–2 | 7.0 W | 23% | Division 16% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCChiefs | 2–0 | 9.7 W | 69% | Division 45% |
| LVRaiders | 2–0 | 9.2 W | 58% | Division 32% |
| DENBroncos | 1–1 | 8.4 W | 41% | Division 18% |
| LACChargers | 0–2 | 6.8 W | 15% | Division 5% |
NFC
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHIEagles | 2–0 | 9.8 W | 65% | Division 49% |
| DALCowboys | 1–1 | 8.5 W | 41% | Division 23% |
| NYGGiants | 1–1 | 8.3 W | 33% | Division 18% |
| WASCommanders | 0–2 | 7.4 W | 20% | Division 10% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINVikings | 2–0 | 9.6 W | 62% | Division 38% |
| GBPackers | 1–1 | 8.9 W | 45% | Division 23% |
| CHIBears | 1–1 | 8.6 W | 42% | Division 21% |
| DETLions | 1–1 | 8.6 W | 38% | Division 19% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOSaints | 1–1 | 8.8 W | 50% | Division 39% |
| CARPanthers | 1–1 | 8.6 W | 48% | Division 35% |
| TBBuccaneers | 0–2 | 7.3 W | 23% | Division 15% |
| ATLFalcons | 0–2 | 7.1 W | 17% | Division 11% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASeahawks | 2–0 | 10.3 W | 75% | Division 41% |
| SF49ers | 2–0 | 10.1 W | 72% | Division 39% |
| LARRams | 1–1 | 8.7 W | 42% | Division 13% |
| ARICardinals | 1–1 | 8.1 W | 27% | Division 7% |
Compare any two teams
Pick two teams for their ratings, odds and what the math says if they played each other.
On a neutral field the math gives the Saints a 50% chance.
At Raiders home: 55% Raiders. At Saints home: 44% Raiders. Expected margin on a neutral field: Saints by 0.1. They meet in Week 3 in Saints country: 44% for the Raiders.
| LV | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| No. 9 (better) | My rank | No. 11 |
| No. 19 | The math’s rank | No. 17 (better) |
| 1495 | Math rating | 1498 (better) |
| 2–0 (better) | Record | 1–1 |
| 58% (better) | Make the playoffs | 50% |
| 32% | Win the division | 39% (better) |
| 9.2 (better) | Projected wins | 8.8 |
| No. 3 | Schedule left (1 = hardest) | No. 28 |
| +13.0 (better) | Scoring margin per game | +3.0 |
| −3.4 | Margin by yards per play | −2.1 (better) |
| +1.0 (better) | Turnover margin per game | −0.5 |
Bold is the better number. Margins are points per game; the yards-per-play margin is net yards per play converted to the scoring scale.
Where we disagree most
Teams where my rank and the math’s rank are 6 or more spots apart. Each one has a card you can share.
- GBI'm lower
The math loves the Packers more than I do.
I have them No. 20. The math has them No. 7, 13 spots higher.
- INDI'm higher
The math doesn't believe in the Colts.
I have them No. 21. The math has them No. 32, 11 spots lower.
- LVI'm higher
The math doesn't believe in the Raiders.
I have them No. 9. The math has them No. 19, 10 spots lower.
- NYJI'm lower
The math loves the Jets more than I do.
I have them No. 26. The math has them No. 16, 10 spots higher.
- MINI'm higher
The math doesn't believe in the Vikings.
I have them No. 6. The math has them No. 14, 8 spots lower.
- CLEI'm lower
The math loves the Browns more than I do.
I have them No. 28. The math has them No. 20, 8 spots higher.
- HOUI'm higher
The math doesn't believe in the Texans.
I have them No. 19. The math has them No. 26, 7 spots lower.
- MIAI'm lower
The math loves the Dolphins more than I do.
I have them No. 32. The math has them No. 25, 7 spots higher.
- NOI'm higher
The math doesn't believe in the Saints.
I have them No. 11. The math has them No. 17, 6 spots lower.
- BALI'm lower
The math loves the Ravens more than I do.
I have them No. 12. The math has them No. 6, 6 spots higher.
All 32 teams
Open any team for its rank history, every result and what each one did to its rating, what the box scores say, and the games still to come.
Gap: + means I rank them higher than the mathTap a team for its story.
| Me | Team | Where each ranks | Math | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Same | ||
| 2 | 2 | Same | ||
| 3 | 3 | Same | ||
| 4 | 5 | I'm 1 higher | ||
| 5 | 10 | I'm 5 higher | ||
| 6 | 14 | I'm 8 higher | ||
| 7 | 9 | I'm 2 higher | ||
| 8 | 4 | I'm 4 lower | ||
| 9 | 19 | I'm 10 higher | ||
| 10 | 13 | I'm 3 higher | ||
| 11 | 17 | I'm 6 higher | ||
| 12 | 6 | I'm 6 lower | ||
| 13 | 8 | I'm 5 lower | ||
| 14 | 12 | I'm 2 lower | ||
| 15 | 18 | I'm 3 higher | ||
| 16 | 11 | I'm 5 lower | ||
| 17 | 15 | I'm 2 lower | ||
| 18 | 21 | I'm 3 higher | ||
| 19 | 26 | I'm 7 higher | ||
| 20 | 7 | I'm 13 lower | ||
| 21 | 32 | I'm 11 higher | ||
| 22 | 22 | Same | ||
| 23 | 27 | I'm 4 higher | ||
| 24 | 29 | I'm 5 higher | ||
| 25 | 23 | I'm 2 lower | ||
| 26 | 16 | I'm 10 lower | ||
| 27 | 24 | I'm 3 lower | ||
| 28 | 20 | I'm 8 lower | ||
| 29 | 28 | I'm 1 lower | ||
| 30 | 31 | I'm 1 higher | ||
| 31 | 30 | I'm 1 lower | ||
| 32 | 25 | I'm 7 lower |
How the math works
Every team has an Elo rating, and the winner of a game takes points from the loser. Beat a better team, or win by more, and you take more. Home teams get about two points of credit, so a road win counts for a little extra. The margin of victory is dampened, so a blowout of a bad team doesn’t run the ratings away.
The full model adds three things to that. It starts the season from last year’s final ratings, pulled almost all the way back toward average (only a tenth of last year’s edge is kept), so this season counts for far more than last, since rosters turn over and results are partly luck. It nudges each rating toward what the box scores say: a team that wins ugly, with fewer yards per play than its score suggests, is rated a little lower than its record, and one that outgains everyone but loses close games a little higher (32 box scores so far). And it credits rest and travel: a bye week, a short week on Thursday night, the distance the visitor flew.
I tested the additions on last season’s games, predicting each from the games before it. A gentle yards-per-play nudge (30% of the gap, and never more than 40 rating points) made the predictions a little better and a heavy one made them worse, so the weight is deliberately small. Rest and travel could not be told apart from noise, so they count at half strength. Turnovers are shown on each team’s panel but don’t move the rating: they decide games, but rarely repeat from team to team.
Playoff odds come from playing every game still on the schedule 10,000 times. Each result is drawn around the margin the ratings expect (about 25 rating points per point on the scoreboard, with the usual spread of NFL results), and then the standings are worked out: division winners, then three wild cards, in each conference. Ratings are held fixed while a season plays out.
It is a simplification. The math knows nothing about injuries or quarterbacks, and ties in the standings are broken by win percentage and then point differential, not the league’s full head-to-head and division-record rules. Early in the year it is mostly last season plus a few games, so expect it to wobble through the first month. It is a check on my opinions, not a replacement for them.
Results and box scores come from ESPN’s public scoreboard and update after every final. Votes are anonymous and one per browser; they are a reader poll, not part of the model.