2026 season · Through Week 4
Blogger vs. the Math
My rankings are opinion. The math is an Elo rating for every team, built from last season, every final score and the box scores, then played forward 10,000 times. Here is where we disagree, who has been right, what happens next, and who is likely to make the playoffs.
The Raiders
I have them No. 8. The math has them No. 7.
The math likes them 1 spot more than I do.
Make the playoffs
72%
Win the AFC West
30%
Projected wins
9.8
Now 3–1, 13 to play
Schedule left
No. 12
of 32, 1 is hardest
Where they finish: chance of each win total
Bright bars are totals still possible. Numbers are percent.
Next up: who wins?
The math’s forecast for the coming games, next to my pick. Where we pick different teams, you get a vote: who do you trust?
Week 4
- ATLFalconsatNOSaints
Mon, Oct 5, 5:15 PM PT
ATL 44%NO by 256% NOWe agreeMe: NO · Math: NO
Week 5
- TBBuccaneersatDALCowboys
Thu, Oct 8, 5:15 PM PT
TB 40%DAL by 3.560% DALWe agreeMe: DAL · Math: DAL - PHIEaglesatJAXJaguars
Sun, Oct 11, 6:30 AM PT
PHI 39%JAX by 3.561% JAXWe agreeMe: JAX · Math: JAX - CHIBearsatGBPackers
Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
CHI 51%Pick’em49% GBWe agreeMe: CHI · Math: CHI - CINBengalsatMIADolphins
Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
CIN 50%Pick’em50% MIAWe splitMe: CIN · Math: MIA - CLEBrownsatNYJJets
Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
CLE 46%NYJ by 1.554% NYJWe splitMe: CLE · Math: NYJ - HOUTexansatTENTitans
Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
HOU 44%TEN by 256% TENWe splitMe: HOU · Math: TEN - INDColtsatPITSteelers
Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
IND 44%PIT by 256% PITWe splitMe: IND · Math: PIT - LVRaidersatNEPatriots
Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
LV 47%NE by 153% NEWe splitMe: LV · Math: NE - MINVikingsatNOSaints
Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
MIN 49%NO by 0.551% NOWe splitMe: MIN · Math: NO - NYGGiantsatWASCommanders
Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT
NYG 49%WAS by 0.551% WASWe splitMe: NYG · Math: WAS - DENBroncosatLACChargers
Sun, Oct 11, 1:05 PM PT
DEN 48%LAC by 152% LACWe splitMe: DEN · Math: LAC - DETLionsatARICardinals
Sun, Oct 11, 1:25 PM PT
DET 46%ARI by 1.554% ARIWe splitMe: DET · Math: ARI - SF49ersatSEASeahawks
Sun, Oct 11, 1:25 PM PT
SF 46%SEA by 1.554% SEAWe splitMe: SF · Math: SEA - BALRavensatATLFalcons
Sun, Oct 11, 5:20 PM PT
BAL 48%ATL by 0.552% ATLWe splitMe: BAL · Math: ATL - BUFBillsatLARRams
Mon, Oct 12, 5:15 PM PT
BUF 46%LAR by 1.554% LARWe splitMe: BUF · Math: LAR
Percentages are the math’s chance each side wins, with home field, rest and travel included. The line is the margin the ratings expect, to the nearest half point. My pick is the higher team on my board.
Who has been right?
The rankings are only useful if they predict something. So every week’s board is graded on the next week’s games.
Me
18–13
58% of winners picked
The math
17–14
55% of winners picked
When we disagree
4–3
7 games, my pick first
I'm ahead by 1 game. Each week’s rankings are graded on the next week’s games, 31 so far. A pick is simply the higher-ranked team: no home field, no point spread, ties skipped.
The 7 games we disagreed on
- Wk 3NYJ 24, DET 31I picked DET, the math picked NYJ.I was right
- Wk 3HOU 17, IND 19I picked HOU, the math picked IND.The math was right
- Wk 3PHI 7, CHI 27I picked PHI, the math picked CHI.The math was right
- Wk 4JAX 22, CIN 17I picked CIN, the math picked JAX.The math was right
- Wk 4LAR 24, PHI 20I picked LAR, the math picked PHI.I was right
- Wk 4GB 17, TB 14I picked GB, the math picked TB.I was right
- Wk 4KC 30, LV 27I picked KC, the math picked LV.I was right
Playoff odds
The rest of the season, played 10,000 times from the ratings. Each division is sorted by its chance to win it; the big number is the chance to make the playoffs.
AFC
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFBills | 3–1 | 9.6 W | 69% | Division 55% |
| NEPatriots | 2–2 | 8.6 W | 45% | Division 28% |
| NYJJets | 1–3 | 7.4 W | 26% | Division 15% |
| MIADolphins | 0–4 | 6.0 W | 6% | Division 3% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALRavens | 3–1 | 9.8 W | 71% | Division 41% |
| CLEBrowns | 3–1 | 9.5 W | 58% | Division 27% |
| CINBengals | 2–2 | 8.6 W | 47% | Division 19% |
| PITSteelers | 2–2 | 8.4 W | 38% | Division 13% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAXJaguars | 3–1 | 10.1 W | 83% | Division 73% |
| INDColts | 2–2 | 8.5 W | 43% | Division 22% |
| TENTitans | 0–4 | 6.0 W | 7% | Division 3% |
| HOUTexans | 0–4 | 5.9 W | 6% | Division 2% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCChiefs | 4–0 | 11.1 W | 89% | Division 61% |
| LVRaiders | 3–1 | 9.8 W | 72% | Division 30% |
| DENBroncos | 2–2 | 8.3 W | 34% | Division 8% |
| LACChargers | 0–4 | 5.8 W | 5% | Division <1% |
NFC
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYGGiants | 3–1 | 9.6 W | 60% | Division 44% |
| DALCowboys | 2–2 | 8.7 W | 47% | Division 30% |
| PHIEagles | 2–2 | 8.3 W | 32% | Division 19% |
| WASCommanders | 1–3 | 7.1 W | 13% | Division 7% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINVikings | 4–0 | 11.0 W | 85% | Division 52% |
| CHIBears | 3–1 | 10.0 W | 73% | Division 33% |
| DETLions | 2–2 | 8.5 W | 35% | Division 9% |
| GBPackers | 2–2 | 8.3 W | 27% | Division 6% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARPanthers | 2–2 | 8.7 W | 52% | Division 44% |
| NOSaints | 1–2 | 8.1 W | 37% | Division 29% |
| ATLFalcons | 1–2 | 7.8 W | 29% | Division 21% |
| TBBuccaneers | 0–4 | 6.0 W | 9% | Division 6% |
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff chance | Division chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF49ers | 4–0 | 11.0 W | 87% | Division 60% |
| SEASeahawks | 3–1 | 9.8 W | 67% | Division 28% |
| LARRams | 2–2 | 8.5 W | 35% | Division 9% |
| ARICardinals | 1–3 | 7.3 W | 13% | Division 2% |
Compare any two teams
Pick two teams for their ratings, odds and what the math says if they played each other.
On a neutral field the math gives the Raiders a 53% chance.
At Raiders home: 59% Raiders. At Patriots home: 48% Raiders. Expected margin on a neutral field: Raiders by 1.2. They meet in Week 5 in Patriots country: 47% for the Raiders.
| LV | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| No. 8 (better) | My rank | No. 19 |
| No. 7 (better) | The math’s rank | No. 17 |
| 1527 (better) | Math rating | 1498 |
| 3–1 (better) | Record | 2–2 |
| 72% (better) | Make the playoffs | 45% |
| 30% (better) | Win the division | 28% |
| 9.8 (better) | Projected wins | 8.6 |
| No. 12 | Schedule left (1 = hardest) | No. 19 |
Bold is the better number. Margins are points per game; the yards-per-play margin is net yards per play converted to the scoring scale.
Where we disagree most
Teams where my rank and the math’s rank are 6 or more spots apart. Each one has a card you can share.
- DENI'm higher
The math doesn't believe in the Broncos.
I have them No. 12. The math has them No. 22, 10 spots lower.
- PHII'm higher
The math doesn't believe in the Eagles.
I have them No. 15. The math has them No. 23, 8 spots lower.
- DALI'm lower
The math loves the Cowboys more than I do.
I have them No. 21. The math has them No. 13, 8 spots higher.
- LARI'm higher
The math doesn't believe in the Rams.
I have them No. 10. The math has them No. 16, 6 spots lower.
All 32 teams
Open any team for its rank history, every result and what each one did to its rating, what the box scores say, and the games still to come.
Gap: + means I rank them higher than the mathTap a team for its story.
| Me | Team | Where each ranks | Math | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Same | ||
| 2 | 2 | Same | ||
| 3 | 3 | Same | ||
| 4 | 9 | I'm 5 higher | ||
| 5 | 4 | I'm 1 lower | ||
| 6 | 5 | I'm 1 lower | ||
| 7 | 6 | I'm 1 lower | ||
| 8 | 7 | I'm 1 lower | ||
| 9 | 8 | I'm 1 lower | ||
| 10 | 16 | I'm 6 higher | ||
| 11 | 14 | I'm 3 higher | ||
| 12 | 22 | I'm 10 higher | ||
| 13 | 11 | I'm 2 lower | ||
| 14 | 10 | I'm 4 lower | ||
| 15 | 23 | I'm 8 higher | ||
| 16 | 12 | I'm 4 lower | ||
| 17 | 19 | I'm 2 higher | ||
| 18 | 18 | Same | ||
| 19 | 17 | I'm 2 lower | ||
| 20 | 15 | I'm 5 lower | ||
| 21 | 13 | I'm 8 lower | ||
| 22 | 20 | I'm 2 lower | ||
| 23 | 25 | I'm 2 higher | ||
| 24 | 27 | I'm 3 higher | ||
| 25 | 21 | I'm 4 lower | ||
| 26 | 26 | Same | ||
| 27 | 24 | I'm 3 lower | ||
| 28 | 28 | Same | ||
| 29 | 31 | I'm 2 higher | ||
| 30 | 30 | Same | ||
| 31 | 29 | I'm 2 lower | ||
| 32 | 32 | Same |
How the math works
Every team has an Elo rating, and the winner of a game takes points from the loser. Beat a better team, or win by more, and you take more. Home teams get about two points of credit, so a road win counts for a little extra. The margin of victory is dampened, so a blowout of a bad team doesn’t run the ratings away.
You’re looking at results only. Every team starts level at 1,500 and only this season’s final scores count, plus the rest-and-travel credit. Switch to the full model above to add last season and the box scores.
I tested the additions on last season’s games, predicting each from the games before it. A gentle yards-per-play nudge (30% of the gap, and never more than 40 rating points) made the predictions a little better and a heavy one made them worse, so the weight is deliberately small. Rest and travel could not be told apart from noise, so they count at half strength. Turnovers are shown on each team’s panel but don’t move the rating: they decide games, but rarely repeat from team to team.
Playoff odds come from playing every game still on the schedule 10,000 times. Each result is drawn around the margin the ratings expect (about 25 rating points per point on the scoreboard, with the usual spread of NFL results), and then the standings are worked out: division winners, then three wild cards, in each conference. Ratings are held fixed while a season plays out.
It is a simplification. The math knows nothing about injuries or quarterbacks, and ties in the standings are broken by win percentage and then point differential, not the league’s full head-to-head and division-record rules. Early in the year it is mostly last season plus a few games, so expect it to wobble through the first month. It is a check on my opinions, not a replacement for them.
Results and box scores come from ESPN’s public scoreboard and update after every final. Votes are anonymous and one per browser; they are a reader poll, not part of the model.